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Condo contrarians: These guys are still bullish on a down market
Carolyn Ireland – The Globe and Mail
Jeanhy Shim is a champion of Toronto’s condo market.
She grew up in a small house with a backyard in Rexdale, but Ms. Shim is raising her four-year-old daughter in a condo in the King West neighbourhood.
Her family doesn’t have a backyard, but Ms. Shim is just fine with that.
“It’s kind of ironic that people don’t think condos are communities. They are just vertical communities.”
Despite falling resale condo figures in this city in recent months, Ms. Shim believes that the outlook for condos in Toronto remains strong. And to those who think the units coming on stream in Toronto are too numerous and too tiny, she points out that urbanites in their 20s and 30s are just happy to occupy a rung on the property ladder.
Comment: Falling for months but then bouncing back up again in April.
“Get in the head of the people actually buying,” she tells those who wonder how anyone can live in 500 square feet. The market analyst and marketing maven is feeling enough brio to launch a new research firm called Housing Lab. Ms. Shim recently talked about the motivation of buyers during a talk billed “The Condo-fication of Toronto: The good, the bad and the ugly”, at University of Toronto.
Some are young professionals who find the competition in the rental market – where the vacancy rate is hovering just above 1% – intense.
“The rental market’s on fire,” she says of a market that inspires bidding wars for some units. So, rather than compete, these children of the boomers are buying their own place.
Other buyers are investors who plan to rent the units out.
“These are not people who are flipping. These investors today have long-term thinking,” she says. “It has provided de facto new rental stock.”
The “bad” infiltrating the condo market comes from so-called value engineering. Some developers are finding their costs so expensive that they have to be very hard-minded in order to turn a profit.
“You’re sitting down with a budget and have to make hard decisions.”
Other knocks against the market include some ill-conceived schemes for retail stores at ground level. In some cases, there are not enough people living nearby to support the businesses and the space sits empty.
As for the ugly, Ms. Shim points to the NIMBYism of people who don’t want to see more high-rise towers. She says the “not in my backyard attitude” reflects a fear of condo-fication, but she thinks the density is necessary and the new construction revitalizes older neighbourhoods.
At the residential builder Daniels Corp., vice-president Martin Blake says the company is going ahead with planned launches of new condo projects. Daniels typically targets the first-time buyer more than investors. The company also offers rent-to-own schemes.
Unlike many developers, Daniels sometimes builds first and then sells the units.
“It takes away the uncertainty of the new condo marketplace.”
In the resale market, condo sales have been sluggish since last summer when the federal government tightened the rules surrounding mortgage lending.
In March, condo sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board’s multiple listing service in the 416 area code dropped 19% compared with the same month last year to continue the trend of falling year-over-year numbers.
Comment: But in April they were only down 1.3%, a rise of almost 18%. New condos dried up over the first quarter, so resales took on the slack and sold more. Plus there were more listings, after months of fewer available units. More for sale, more sales. Easy!
Nicholas Bohr, an agent with ReMax Hallmark Realty Ltd., agrees with Ms. Shim that the condo lifestyle is so desirable to some that certain types of buildings will always be sought after. While many buyers in the past considered a condo just a pathway to their goal of owning a detached house, that’s no longer true in many cases, he adds.
“I like to label it as a stepping stone but for a lot of people it’s a lifestyle,” he says. “Some people don’t like to live in a house. They want to live in something new and something sexy and even to change it every couple of years.”
Mr. Bohr says marquee condo buildings by prime builders still remain in high demand. But owners who are trying to sell a unit in a building where there are many other similar units for sale will need to be more patient.
“Prices are based on future expectations,” says Mr. Bohr. “Some are coming down and some builders make condo purchases a good investment,” he says.
In the buildings where there are more competing units for sale, real estate agents also need to be more inventive, he adds.
Mr. Bohr recently printed up 300 cards and had them delivered to tenants in a rental apartment building across the street from a condo tower. “Why rent when you can own across the street?” the flyer asks, suggesting that prospective purchasers get in touch with a mortgage broker.
Mr. Bohr also invites residents of the entire building to a wine-and-cheese open house before he puts a condo unit on the market.
He hopes that owners will tell their friends and family about the new unit for sale in their building. He can also garner first impressions about the staging and price.
“It’s a great way to get some buzz. They can give great feedback,” he says.
Comment: No, it is just a marketing ploy to get his name out to as many people as possible. Let’s be honest here…
Christopher Bibby, an agent with Sutton Group-Associates Realty Inc., says that buyers of resale condo units are being choosy about neighbourhoods and buildings.
Units in buildings that are not in high demand might take a month to sell – even with a realistic asking price and savvy staging.
But for a sought-after building such as a “hard” loft conversion, buyers are often waiting and watching for units to come on the market. Mr. Bibby recently sold a loft in the popular Candy Factory building for an amount above the asking price. Two buyers stepped up with offers.
Comment: Yeah, and that happened in like a day. A $1.25m unit at One Columbus was gone over a weekend last month. The prime ones go fast!
“If agents are doing their job, they’ll come the first day and that’s what happened here.”
Mr. Bibby says condo sellers need to be very sharp with their asking price.
In another case, Mr. Bibby recently took over a condo listing after the property sat on the market for half a year.
“I think they had three showings in six months.”
Mr. Bibby recommended that the seller lower the asking price to $615,000 from $665,000. At the lower asking price, the unit was cheaper than those with similar layouts for sale in the same building.
“We’ve had more showings now than they had in six months,” he says. “People’s expectations have to change.”
Comment: But it still has not sold. Not good. I figured it had high fees, but it does not. It is a new unit on a high floor in a popular building. Nice looking condo, fantastic view. Not sure why it is not selling. Chris knows his stuff, I expect he will sell it soon enough.
Mr. Bibby says it’s tough to sell a unit when lots of competing properties are listed in the same building. Some sellers point to sales in neighbouring buildings and want the same kind of asking price if their unit measures a similar number of square feet. But Mr. Bibby says the building across the street may offer a panoramic view, for example, while another overlooks a parking lot.
“You can’t just generalize,” he says. “Every building is completely different.”
Comment: Amen brother!
That kind of competition makes staging even more important than usual “You have to be hands-on. Get the place looking as open and airy as possible.”
Mr. Bibby says he sees a movement toward low-rise and mid-rise buildings in established neighbourhoods.
“These are the buildings that are doing exceptionally well. People are literally waiting,” he says. “The bulk of the inventory is right downtown but a lot of the demand is in smaller boutique conversions.”
In Roncesvalles Village and Leslieville, for example, loft conversions sell almost instantly.
“There are so few of them in communities with a farmer’s market next door and smaller coffee shops,” he says. “Even if they work in the financial district, people want to live in a little bit of a tranquil setting and not in the middle of an intersection.”
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416−388−1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
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Small scale, big appeal
With a changing market, there’s demand for well-designed midrise and lowrise projects in beloved neighbourhoods
Globe and Mail
Some interesting trends are emerging as the Greater Toronto Area real estate market transitions from years of red-hot sales fuelled largely by the highrise condo boom.
Paul Johnston of Right at Home Realty Inc., who specializes in unique urban homes, says the market “is coming back to earth” and rather by being dominated by investors, it is being driven by “real people who buy real homes.”
This could spawn the development of more midrise and lowrise projects in the city, which will always resonate with buyers, he believes. “There is a move towards much smaller-scaled projects and by that, I don’t mean 205-square-foot suites in a highrise. I’m talking about five, six or seven storey midrise buildings and three-storey townhouses, which are much more humanly scaled. Demand is strong, strong, strong and it remains a very good market but gets muddled in with the highrise market.”
He says while the real estate market has been guided by consumer confidence “and that confidence has been mistakenly eroded by the correction in the highrise market,” it hasn’t had a salient effect on single family housing or the market for midrise buildings designed specifically for non-investors.
Mr. Johnston predicts a greater number of these smaller projects will be coming to some of the city’s best loved neighbourhoods.
“Little Italy, Trinity Bellwoods and Ossington are already established neighbourhoods and a growing number of developers are trying to gauge how to recalibrate their business to attract buyers who want more modestly scaled buildings,” says Mr. Johnston. “A growing number of people in the city want to live in iconic buildings and we can create small icons. There is an opportunity to insert more modestly scaled buildings that are precious gems, into the neighbourhoods we really love.”
While some buyers do appreciate the conveniences of the condo lifestyle, they don’t necessarily want to live in a tower, he says.
“No one wants to be on third floor of a 90 storey building, but they do want to be on the third floor of a six-storey building,” he says, adding that Toronto is finally responding to that segment of the market that wants to live in well-designed, smaller scaled developments in neighbourhoods outside the city core, which is dominated by highrises.
Comment: Bravo! This is where I want to get into the development game. Micro condos, mark my words…
He says many people want to live in buildings with 40 or 80 residents, where the setting is more intimate and they can get to know their neighbours. He says these small buildings don’t have elaborate amenities such as gyms and pools like large highrise projects do, but that’s fine with buyers.
“When you put in a small-scale building, you are in an already vibrant neighbourhood, so why put in all that stuff?” asks Mr. Johnston, pointing out that another advantage is that condo fees are much less expensive in small buildings without a large roster of amenities.
He cites the Ossington neighbourhood as an up-and-coming area for modestly scaled condo or loft projects. One example is 109 Oz, a six-storey condo in the heart of Ossington Village set in an area of established restaurants, shops and hardware stores.
“Around the corner you have Abacus, which is even more modest with 40 lofts, but the building is architecturally very distinctive,” Mr. Johnston says. “This is a place where you can find something to do at 2 in the afternoon or at midnight.”
He says prices for single homes are rising in the Ossington neighbourhood, citing a recent $1.25 million sale, “and if you want to live in that neighbourhood, single family houses may be out of reach financially, but maybe a modestly scaled condo or loft building will fit the bill.”
Despite the general lacklustre performance of the market, Mr. Johnston knows one thing to be true.
“There is a huge appetite for great properties in great neighbourhoods,” he says.
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416−388−1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
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