Exchange Mag­a­zine

Sta­ble eco­nomic con­di­tions across the province will help sta­bi­lize hous­ing demand in 2010 accord­ing to the 2009 Third Quar­ter CMHC Hous­ing Mar­ket Out­look – Canada Edi­tion released today.

High­lights of the Ontario fore­cast include:

The Ontario econ­omy will sta­bi­lize at year end before grad­u­ally recov­er­ing in 2010.
Ontario real estate sales will sta­bi­lize and range between 160,000 and 190,000 unit sales this year and next – reach­ing 174,0001 units in 2009, and 166,750 units in 2010.
Resale vol­umes will be down from the peak in 2007 but will be in line with vol­umes ear­lier this decade.

After expe­ri­enc­ing buy­ers mar­ket con­di­tions early this year, bal­anced mar­ket con­di­tions will be sus­tained through 2010 – real estate prices will rise by 1.6% in 2009 and 0.8% in 2010.

Com­ment: Toronto is in the throes of a seri­ous sell­ers mar­ket, though. With record sales vol­umes in June, July and August, and inven­tory lev­els falling to 38% in August – there are just fewer and fewer homes to buy. This is cre­at­ing bid­ding wars (1 in 6 sales in Toronto in August were mul­ti­ple offers) and push­ing prices upwards.

After declin­ing in 2009, new home starts will edge up and reach 50,000 units in 2010 but owing to eco­nomic uncer­tainty will range between 45,800 and 60,000.
High lev­els of afford­abil­ity will sup­port demand for detached hous­ing in the imme­di­ate term but a shift to more inex­pen­sive multi-family hous­ing will occur as afford­abil­ity erodes in late 2010.

Hamil­ton, Thun­der Bay, Ottawa and Kitch­ener new home mar­kets will enjoy greater growth prospects as these cen­ters rep­re­sent the tight­est Ontario resale markets.

“A grad­u­ally improv­ing provin­cial econ­omy, improved finan­cial mar­ket con­di­tions and high lev­els of afford­abil­ity will help sta­bi­lize hous­ing activ­ity next year” said Ted Tsi­akopou­los, CMHC’s Ontario regional econ­o­mist. “How­ever, less pent-up demand and cau­tious con­sumer spend­ing result­ing from mod­est employ­ment and per­sonal income gains are fac­tors that will tem­per Ontario‘s hous­ing recov­ery in 2010,” added Tsiakopoulos.

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion  -  416−388−1960

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