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Category Archives: Toronto Condos

Condo contrarians: These guys are still bullish on a down market

Carolyn Ireland – The Globe and Mail

Jeanhy Shim is a champion of Toronto’s condo market.

She grew up in a small house with a backyard in Rexdale, but Ms. Shim is raising her four-year-old daughter in a condo in the King West neighbourhood.

Her family doesn’t have a backyard, but Ms. Shim is just fine with that.

“It’s kind of ironic that people don’t think condos are communities. They are just vertical communities.”

Despite falling resale condo figures in this city in recent months, Ms. Shim believes that the outlook for condos in Toronto remains strong. And to those who think the units coming on stream in Toronto are too numerous and too tiny, she points out that urbanites in their 20s and 30s are just happy to occupy a rung on the property ladder.

Comment: Falling for months but then bouncing back up again in April.

“Get in the head of the people actually buying,” she tells those who wonder how anyone can live in 500 square feet. The market analyst and marketing maven is feeling enough brio to launch a new research firm called Housing Lab. Ms. Shim recently talked about the motivation of buyers during a talk billed “The Condo-fication of Toronto: The good, the bad and the ugly”, at University of Toronto.

Some are young professionals who find the competition in the rental market – where the vacancy rate is hovering just above 1% – intense.

“The rental market’s on fire,” she says of a market that inspires bidding wars for some units. So, rather than compete, these children of the boomers are buying their own place.

Other buyers are investors who plan to rent the units out.

“These are not people who are flipping. These investors today have long-term thinking,” she says. “It has provided de facto new rental stock.”

The “bad” infiltrating the condo market comes from so-called value engineering. Some developers are finding their costs so expensive that they have to be very hard-minded in order to turn a profit.

“You’re sitting down with a budget and have to make hard decisions.”

Other knocks against the market include some ill-conceived schemes for retail stores at ground level. In some cases, there are not enough people living nearby to support the businesses and the space sits empty.

As for the ugly, Ms. Shim points to the NIMBYism of people who don’t want to see more high-rise towers. She says the “not in my backyard attitude” reflects a fear of condo-fication, but she thinks the density is necessary and the new construction revitalizes older neighbourhoods.

At the residential builder Daniels Corp., vice-president Martin Blake says the company is going ahead with planned launches of new condo projects. Daniels typically targets the first-time buyer more than investors. The company also offers rent-to-own schemes.

Unlike many developers, Daniels sometimes builds first and then sells the units.

“It takes away the uncertainty of the new condo marketplace.”

In the resale market, condo sales have been sluggish since last summer when the federal government tightened the rules surrounding mortgage lending.

In March, condo sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board’s multiple listing service in the 416 area code dropped 19% compared with the same month last year to continue the trend of falling year-over-year numbers.

Comment: But in April they were only down 1.3%, a rise of almost 18%. New condos dried up over the first quarter, so resales took on the slack and sold more. Plus there were more listings, after months of fewer available units. More for sale, more sales. Easy!

Nicholas Bohr, an agent with ReMax Hallmark Realty Ltd., agrees with Ms. Shim that the condo lifestyle is so desirable to some that certain types of buildings will always be sought after. While many buyers in the past considered a condo just a pathway to their goal of owning a detached house, that’s no longer true in many cases, he adds.

“I like to label it as a stepping stone but for a lot of people it’s a lifestyle,” he says. “Some people don’t like to live in a house. They want to live in something new and something sexy and even to change it every couple of years.”

Mr. Bohr says marquee condo buildings by prime builders still remain in high demand. But owners who are trying to sell a unit in a building where there are many other similar units for sale will need to be more patient.

“Prices are based on future expectations,” says Mr. Bohr. “Some are coming down and some builders make condo purchases a good investment,” he says.

In the buildings where there are more competing units for sale, real estate agents also need to be more inventive, he adds.

Mr. Bohr recently printed up 300 cards and had them delivered to tenants in a rental apartment building across the street from a condo tower. “Why rent when you can own across the street?” the flyer asks, suggesting that prospective purchasers get in touch with a mortgage broker.

Mr. Bohr also invites residents of the entire building to a wine-and-cheese open house before he puts a condo unit on the market.

He hopes that owners will tell their friends and family about the new unit for sale in their building. He can also garner first impressions about the staging and price.

“It’s a great way to get some buzz. They can give great feedback,” he says.

Comment: No, it is just a marketing ploy to get his name out to as many people as possible. Let’s be honest here…

Christopher Bibby, an agent with Sutton Group-Associates Realty Inc., says that buyers of resale condo units are being choosy about neighbourhoods and buildings.

Units in buildings that are not in high demand might take a month to sell – even with a realistic asking price and savvy staging.

But for a sought-after building such as a “hard” loft conversion, buyers are often waiting and watching for units to come on the market. Mr. Bibby recently sold a loft in the popular Candy Factory building for an amount above the asking price. Two buyers stepped up with offers.

Comment: Yeah, and that happened in like a day. A $1.25m unit at One Columbus was gone over a weekend last month. The prime ones go fast!

“If agents are doing their job, they’ll come the first day and that’s what happened here.”

Mr. Bibby says condo sellers need to be very sharp with their asking price.

In another case, Mr. Bibby recently took over a condo listing after the property sat on the market for half a year.

“I think they had three showings in six months.”

Mr. Bibby recommended that the seller lower the asking price to $615,000 from $665,000. At the lower asking price, the unit was cheaper than those with similar layouts for sale in the same building.

“We’ve had more showings now than they had in six months,” he says. “People’s expectations have to change.”

Comment: But it still has not sold. Not good. I figured it had high fees, but it does not. It is a new unit on a high floor in a popular building. Nice looking condo, fantastic view. Not sure why it is not selling. Chris knows his stuff, I expect he will sell it soon enough.

Mr. Bibby says it’s tough to sell a unit when lots of competing properties are listed in the same building. Some sellers point to sales in neighbouring buildings and want the same kind of asking price if their unit measures a similar number of square feet. But Mr. Bibby says the building across the street may offer a panoramic view, for example, while another overlooks a parking lot.

“You can’t just generalize,” he says. “Every building is completely different.”

Comment: Amen brother!

That kind of competition makes staging even more important than usual “You have to be hands-on. Get the place looking as open and airy as possible.”

Mr. Bibby says he sees a movement toward low-rise and mid-rise buildings in established neighbourhoods.

“These are the buildings that are doing exceptionally well. People are literally waiting,” he says. “The bulk of the inventory is right downtown but a lot of the demand is in smaller boutique conversions.”

In Roncesvalles Village and Leslieville, for example, loft conversions sell almost instantly.

“There are so few of them in communities with a farmer’s market next door and smaller coffee shops,” he says. “Even if they work in the financial district, people want to live in a little bit of a tranquil setting and not in the middle of an intersection.”

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

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  • Toronto real estate: Wet, cold month leaves home-sellers looking for ray of sunshine

    Tra­di­tional spring mar­ket for Toronto real estate feels added damp­en­ing effect — weather.

    Susan Pigg – Toronto Star

    In a city stacked with cookie-cutter con­dos, Chris Parry has a rare win­dow on the world.

    The 400-square-foot rooftop patio is Parry’s favourite “room” in his west-end con­do­minium town­house and one of its biggest sell­ing features.

    Until this week, things had been a lit­tle wet and frosty on his third-floor perch — so wet that it’s the first April he hasn’t been able to oil the wood deck­ing, put out plants and hang his hammock.

    More impor­tantly, Parry has been delayed by weeks in list­ing his place at King and Nia­gara Sts. for sale, all because of the weather.

    The rooftop is one of the biggest upgrades in my unit and one of the rea­sons I bought the place,” says Parry. “If I didn’t want to show it off, the place would have been listed two months.”

    Thanks to one of the dingi­est Aprils in recent mem­ory, this much-anticipated spring real estate mar­ket has been, at least until now, far more soggy than sunny.

    Com­ment: But now the weather is bet­ter and buy­ers are out in droves. Just had 50 peo­ple come through my open house!

    Across the GTA, proud home­own­ers like Mel Mills have been fran­ti­cally watch­ing the Weather Chan­nel and press­ing their real­tors to hold off list­ing — in Mills’ case, until he could open the pool at his Glen Abbey home and the expen­sive land­scap­ing on his ravine lot was in bloom.

    In the end, Mills had to make do with buds and slapped up a for sale sign last week. He was finally able to fin­ish off exte­rior paint­ing late this week, just as the buds were giv­ing way to a few blooms.

    We really shouldn’t have listed it yet,” says Mills. “When all the leaves and flow­ers are in, our back­yard is com­pletely secluded. None of that is show­ing off. We’re miss­ing out on one of the big sell­ing fea­tures of our home.”

    Weather is always “a very large fac­tor” in kick-starting the peak spring house-buying spree, says Queen’s Uni­ver­sity real estate pro­fes­sor John Andrew.

    Com­ment: Which is why last spring was so crazy, the weather was nice start­ing in Feb­ru­ary. Hard to com­pare a 20-degree March with one cov­ered in snow. Add in tighter mort­gage rules and it is easy to see why March 2012 had 17% more sales than March 2013. Then in April the weather got bet­ter and the dif­fer­ence was only 0.4%. Yet most of the press would have you believe that the sales dif­fer­ence was the begin­ning of the apocalypse.

    Many sell­ers aren’t keen to list until they can make top dol­lar from the tens of thou­sands they’ve plowed into decks, pools and back­yards. Buy­ers aren’t inter­ested in house hunt­ing, and chances are slim they’ll trip across a great house unex­pect­edly while out on their bike when it’s cold and wet.

    Even if things start to pick up this week­end, April is done,” says Andrew. “A lot of peo­ple, like me, were wait­ing to see if there was bit of turn-around with this spring mar­ket” in the face of house, and espe­cially condo, sales that started slump­ing last summer.

    I think April is going to be flat for sales, but hope­fully May traf­fic will pick up.”

    Sales, and prices, did pick up as expected in April over March, as is the sea­sonal norm, says Jason Mer­cer, senior mar­ket ana­lyst for TREB, but list­ings con­tinue to lag.

    Com­ment: April and May are the tra­di­tional busy months. Some arti­cles, in an effort to make things look bad, even claimed that Feb­ru­ary was the start of the “tra­di­tional” spring mar­ket – and thus, since sales were down, it meant the mar­ket was about to crash. Actu­ally, Feb­ru­ary is nor­mally a dead month and this past one had a bliz­zard every other day. So yeah, I think that was a more rea­son­able explanation.

    Toronto Real Estate Board num­bers show that list­ings were actu­ally up as of mid-April by about 15%, with 8,770 new prop­er­ties for sale across the GTA com­pared to 7,580 a year ear­lier. (Sales were down almost 6% year over year, and prices up 3.2%.) But it won’t be clear until full-month sta­tis­tics are released in the next few days what a damp­en­ing effect, if any, the lack of sun­shine and even lin­ger­ing snow flur­ries played in what’s tra­di­tion­ally one of the busiest home-buying months of the year.

    Real­tors like Adri­enne Far­quhar have been work­ing with clients for weeks now to get inte­ri­ors ready to go and antic­i­pates a flurry of new list­ings over the next two weeks as the weather improves.

    I see this spring mar­ket extend­ing far fur­ther into June, more aggres­sively and pos­i­tively than in the past,” says Far­quhar. “It might just be a later spring mar­ket than usual.”

    Com­ment: Makes sense to me.

    Diane Black, whose Stage­sense com­pany works with real­tors and sell­ers, largely in the Mis­sis­sauga and Oakville areas, to get homes ready for sale, describes this as “one of the worst springs I’ve seen.”

    Every­one was opti­mistic that we would see an upswing in the mar­ket in Jan­u­ary and Feb­ru­ary, but it didn’t really hap­pen. Then we got hit by the weather,” says Black.

    Our curb appeal, in some ways, has to be higher because there’s more of it” on big­ger sub­ur­ban lots. “But it also becomes more of an eye­sore when trees and shrubs haven’t filled in. Of course, you can use pic­tures to show what it usu­ally looks like, but that’s not quite the same.”

    This may all seem like small, silly stuff, but in the age of the “HGTV effect” — buy­ers who won’t set­tle for any­thing but a knock­out, no-work home — it all adds up in the final sale price.

    We know that buy­ers make their deci­sions quickly, and that the first deci­sion is made online,” says Black. “You can get a great feel for the inside of a house on MLS now, but the exte­rior is a big rea­son they are com­ing out to see the house.”

    Com­ment: And this is just one year, as was last year, as next year will be. They are all dif­fer­ent, for dif­fer­ent rea­sons. Don’t read too much into the variations!

    —————————————————————————————————–
    Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

    Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
    They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
    who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

    —————————————————————————————————–

    Toronto real estate: Downtown condos lead broad rise in prices

    Susan Pigg – Toronto Star

    Sales of homes across the GTA slipped by 2.1% in April, but prices were up 2%, as the usu­ally hot spring mar­ket suf­fered through another wet, cold month.

    Sur­pris­ingly, down­town con­dos saw the biggest spike in prices — up 5.6% to an aver­age of $379,266 — and a decline in sales of just 1.3% over last April, accord­ing to sta­tis­tics released Fri­day by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

    Sub­ur­ban condo sales were the flip side of the coin, how­ever, in a mar­ket that con­tin­ues to glide to a soft land­ing rather than the dev­as­tat­ing crash many eco­nom­ics and hous­ing experts had pre­dicted just last fall.

    Com­ment: I guess it goes to show that the econ­o­mists were sim­ply wrong. Hous­ing experts did not pre­dict a crash, only the econ­o­mists. Those in the real estate indus­try pre­dicted a slower INCREASE in sales and prices. As I keep say­ing, why does any­one believe or trust the econ­o­mists any­more, they have been wrong for 10+ years now.

    Resale condo prices were down almost 6% across the 905 regions, to an aver­age of $273,832. Sales of sub­ur­ban con­dos took the biggest hit of any hous­ing sec­tor across the GTA in April — next to sales of detached homes in the 416 region — drop­ping 7.3% in April.

    The con­do­minium apart­ment seg­ment in the City of Toronto was a key dri­ver of price growth in April,” which sug­gests that first-time buy­ers are out house hunt­ing again, almost a year after Ottawa moved to tighten mort­gage lend­ing rules, said TREB pres­i­dent Ann Han­nah in a statement.

    Com­ment: That and condo list­ings rose while new projects stalled. Easy to see what pushed resale condo sales up.

    Econ­o­mist Will Dun­ning points out, how­ever, that this April had 22 week­days — when sales tend to be recorded by TREB — com­pared to 20 in 2012. When sales fig­ures are adjusted for sea­sonal fluc­tu­a­tions, the sales down­turn of 2% reported by TREB is prob­a­bly closer to 14%, he noted.

    Com­ment: For­get the stu­pid extra day / fewer days BS, that is stu­pid. Not until this year did we split hairs that fine. April is April, can we please just leave it like that. And that is just try­ing to make a good news num­ber look bad by con­duct­ing some voodoo math on it. I am sure I could pick a bunch of other months over the past year or two and do the same false adjust­ing and arrive at num­bers that look bet­ter than they should. But how do 10% extra days turn into 700% worse sales? That is some really inter­est­ing math!

    Most inter­est­ing about the condo num­bers, said Dun­ning, is that the total num­ber of units for sale in the 416 region was up 8%, help­ing keep the mar­ket sta­ble, while there was a 16% jump in the 905 regions, now a buyer’s market.

    Com­ment: Amaz­ing, list­ings were up 8% and sales rose 5.6% – not that there is a con­nec­tion there or anything…

    There’s still not a lot of urgency in the mar­ket­place,” said down­town real­tor Andrew la Fleur, who focuses largely on the down­town condo mar­ket. “There’s still a lot of wait-and-see mindset.”

    Com­ment: And sell­ers are not blinking.

    Detached homes took the biggest hit in April. Sales in the City of Toronto plum­meted almost 12% over last April, although prices were up 2.5% to an aver­age of $852,090, accord­ing to TREB’s fig­ures. That may reflect, at least in part, the lack of enough detached homes on the mar­ket to meet demand, which has been an ongo­ing issue, espe­cially in Toronto, for three or four years and has con­tributed to bid­ding wars — and esca­lat­ing prices even in a soft­en­ing mar­ket — in cov­eted neigh­bour­hoods close to down­town jobs and tran­sit lines.

    Sales of detached homes in the 905 were up 2.5% year over year, and prices were up 2.2% to an aver­age of $588,784, accord­ing to TREB.

    Semi-detached homes in the 416 region saw a 5.5% sales down­turn in April, year over year, but prices were up 2.4% to an aver­age of $595,398. In the sub­urbs, the sale of semis were up 1.3% and prices up 4.3%, to an aver­age sale price of $410,739.

    Town­house sales declined 3.6% in the city, but the aver­age sales price was $433,710, up 2.3% over last April. In the 905 region, town­house trans­ac­tions declined by 1.2%, although prices were up 3.5%, to an aver­age sales price of $375,269.

    Despite an unre­lent­ing win­ter that lin­gered through most of April, damp­en­ing the enthu­si­asm of both buy­ers and sell­ers, some of whom were hold­ing out for their pricey land­scap­ing to be in bloom, new list­ings were up almost 11% year over year.

    Com­ment: I bet we see a pos­tive May, finally some nice weather!

    The time it takes to sell a house climbed slightly, to 23 days com­pared to 21 days in April of 2012. Con­dos, on the other hand, are aver­ag­ing 32 days on the market.

    —————————————————————————————————–
    Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

    Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
    They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
    who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

    —————————————————————————————————–

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