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Tag Archives: Bank of Canada

Homeowners poised to cash in on decade-long housing boom

Decade-long housing boom fuelling a buy-up bonanza, ReMax says

Susan Pigg – Toronto Star

More homeowners are poised to cash out and move up this year backed by gains averaging some 93% during a 10-year housing boom that, in losing some of its steam, has opened new doors for would-be buyers, according to a new report from realty company ReMax.

Move-up buyers took advantage of the softening market last year as a chance to buy a bigger home in 14 of 16 major markets surveyed by ReMax, the exceptions being Victoria and Vancouver, where sales slumped significantly.

10 year real estate price growth
Move-up houses in the $500,000 to $700,000 range accounted for about 20% of sales across the GTA last year, up 8% from the previous year, says the ReMax Move-Up Buyers Report 2013 released Thursday.

Comment: But that is an arbitrary name given to an arbitrary price range. I have a lot of first time buyers in the $450-550,000 range these days. A $500k property is becoming a first home. And the shift in value allocation could simply be a result of rising prices. For all we know, without access to the data, 10% of that 12% increase could be in the $500-510,000 range.

That buy-up spree is likely to continue this year as interest rates remain low and many first-time buyers take a breather in the face of tougher mortgage lending rules, the report notes.

While departing Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, and others, have warned of the hazards of treating houses like ATM machines – for living the good life or funding retirement – the report paints a fascinating picture of who won the biggest jackpot in the Canadian housing market lottery between 2002 and 2012.

Surprising as this may seem, you would have seen an almost tripling of the value of your house (from $100,751 to $301,145) – more than 11% per year from 2002 to last year – if it was in Regina rather than Riverdale.

Comment: Yet no one cries the blues about Regina housing prices, no one calls for the crash of that market.

Second and third place in the housing gains department were Saskatoon and Winnipeg, with annual increases averaging 10.25 and 10.03 respectively over the decade, ReMax says.

Comment: Funny… not Vancouver or Toronto? Yet they are the focus of 99% of real estate writing.

Across the GTA the average house appreciated from $275,231 in 2002 to $497,298 last year, an almost 80% increase over the decade, amounting to average annual gains of about 6%.

Comment: Which, everyone needs to note, is not a huge amount. How does 6% per year turn into a bubble? The last bubble we had, in the late 1980s, had appreciation rates over 100% a year for a short time. That is a bubble. Only 6% a year is just a nice steady rate of return. Heck, if your mutual fund only got you 10% you would be mad!

Those price escalations eased somewhat from 2007 to 2012 (from an average $376,236 to $497,298, amounting to a still-hefty 32% gain) and show “no signs of being in bubble territory – and most definitely not in the often cited markets of Vancouver and Toronto,” said Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice president and regional director of ReMax Ontario-Atlantic Canada in a statement on the report.

Comment: Amen!

5 year real estate price growth
“While gains in Regina, Saskatoon and St. John’s have been exceptional, house prices are playing catch up, given a stronger economic status and following decades of steady, but modest, growth.”

Saint John recorded the lowest price gains during the decade-long boom, the report shows, with the average house price increasing by about 62%, or less than 5% a year, from an average of $103,544 in 2002 to $168,048 last year.

The report found those first-time buyers now in the market are moving up faster than in the past, an average four to seven years from their initial purchase.

“Inventory levels remain a challenge within Toronto proper – with fewer than 300 single-detached homes currently listed for sale in the $500,000 to $700,000 price range from Victoria Park to Islington, north to Steeles Ave.,” the report notes.

Comment: As I said, those are not necessarily move-up homes, they are starter homes.

Listings are expected to climb as the March to May spring buying season nears.

At the same time, the number homes for sale in the 905 regions has increased, “allowing purchasers the luxury of time and choice.”

—————————————————————————————————–
Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

—————————————————————————————————–


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  • Realtors blame Flaherty as slump deepens

    Tara Perkins – Globe and Mail

    The mar­ket for home sales is chill­ing fur­ther after months of decline – and it’s putting Finance Min­is­ter Jim Fla­herty on the hot seat.

    New data show sales dete­ri­o­rat­ing in Novem­ber, and the asso­ci­a­tion that rep­re­sents Cana­dian real­tors says sales will fall, not rise, this year and next.

    Mr. Fla­herty, who sought to cool the mar­ket this sum­mer by tight­en­ing mort­gage insur­ance rules, says his actions are only one part of the story and that Cana­di­ans are vol­un­tar­ily curb­ing their appetites for mort­gage debt.

    The stricter rules that took effect in July included cut­ting the max­i­mum length of an insured mort­gage to 25 years from 30, a move that indus­try play­ers say knocked a num­ber of poten­tial first-time buy­ers out of the mar­ket or pushed them into lower-priced homes. In addi­tion to the rule changes, Mr. Fla­herty and Bank of Canada Gov­er­nor Mark Car­ney have been try­ing to talk down the mar­ket by warn­ing Cana­di­ans about the per­ils of tak­ing out large loans while inter­est rates are low. Their fear has been that too many bor­row­ers were tak­ing on exces­sive mort­gage debt that would be unaf­ford­able if rates were to rise. Parts of the mar­ket were get­ting frothy so, to mit­i­gate the risks of a hous­ing down­turn they’ve sought to slowly take some steam out of the mar­ket and steer it toward a soft landing.

    While econ­o­mists say that so far it appears to be work­ing, a num­ber of real estate pro­fes­sion­als and orga­ni­za­tions argue that the changes went too far and pose a threat to the economy.

    Com­ment: Oh now that is just silly. There is no threat to the econ­omy. It just weeds out those on the cusp, serv­ing only to make our real estate mar­ket stronger.

    On Mon­day the Cana­dian Real Estate Asso­ci­a­tion reported that sales over the Mul­ti­ple List­ing Ser­vice fell 1.7% from Octo­ber to Novem­ber, with activ­ity com­ing in 11.9% lower than last November.

    As a result it has cut its fore­casts for this year and next, which it had just revised down­ward in Sep­tem­ber, say­ing “lower than pro­jected third-quarter sales have down­graded the prospects for activ­ity this year in almost every province.” And the asso­ci­a­tion made it clear that, as far as it can see, there is only one rea­son for the cooling.

    Com­ment: There is a direct cor­re­la­tion. Sales vol­ume fell in each of the months fol­low­ing the new mort­gage rules. In the first half of the year, each month saw a lit­tle increase over the same month on 2011. After the new rules, every­thing changed. Like some­one flipped a switch. So yeah, there is one big main rea­son for the sales drop.

    Inter­est rates have remained low and the eco­nomic back­drop has remained sup­port­ive for hous­ing activ­ity, so that should leave lit­tle doubt that recent changes to mort­gage reg­u­la­tions are respon­si­ble for hav­ing cooled activ­ity,” CREA chief econ­o­mist Gre­gory Klump stated in a press release.

    Com­ment: When only one thing changes…

    But Mr. Fla­herty, when asked about that asser­tion dur­ing a press con­fer­ence in Meech Lake, Que., where he was meet­ing with provin­cial finance min­is­ters, said “the cause and effect is not that simple.”

    Com­ment: Yes, it is.

    I cer­tainly believe that the steps we took to tighten the mort­gage insur­ance rules had some effect,” he said. “The Office of the Super­in­ten­dent of Finan­cial Insti­tu­tions tight­ened guide­lines as well. And I think there’s an increas­ing aware­ness among the Cana­dian pub­lic that exces­sive debt is unwise in a time of his­tor­i­cally low inter­est rates.”

    Com­ment: Yet debt lev­els are not falling.

    OSFI, the nation’s bank­ing reg­u­la­tor, released mort­gage guide­lines this sum­mer that push lenders to be more cau­tious in areas such as credit checks and appraisals. It also capped the amount that an indi­vid­ual can bor­row on a home equity line of credit at 65% of the home’s value. The big banks were required to fol­low those guide­lines as of the start of November.

    CREA now expects resales of exist­ing homes to come in at 456,300 units this year, down 0.5% from last year and nearly 1% below the 10-year aver­age. In Sep­tem­ber, it said it expected resales to rise by 1.9% this year to 466,900 units, a fig­ure that it had already revised down.

    CREA now expects 447,400 sales next year, down 2% from this year. In Sep­tem­ber it had esti­mated 457,800 units – again, a fig­ure that it had already cut.

    The con­tin­u­a­tion of mod­er­ate eco­nomic, job, and income growth will tem­per the impact of recent mort­gage rule changes, which are not expected to dampen activ­ity much more than has already been felt until inter­est rates are expected to begin ris­ing in late 2013,” the asso­ci­a­tion stated in its new forecast.

    Com­ment: But ris­ing inter­est rates sig­nal a strong econ­omy, mean­ing there are jobs and money.

    The slow­down is begin­ning to show up in prices, which have lost their momen­tum. The national aver­age price of houses that sold in Novem­ber was 0.8% lower than a year ago. The MLS Home Price Index, which seeks to account for changes in the type of houses sold, rose by 3.5%, its small­est increase since May, 2011.

    Sales have con­tracted in eight of the past 11 months, Toronto-Dominion Bank senior econ­o­mist Sonya Gulati said in a note.

    The slow­down is most notice­able in Toronto, Mon­treal and Van­cou­ver, she added, say­ing those cities “are more vul­ner­a­ble to expe­ri­ence a greater-than-average hous­ing adjustment.”

    Com­ment: Van­cou­ver fell more than 30%, a rather seri­ous drop. Toronto saw sales fall only 4%.

    Nation­wide, TD expects mar­ket con­di­tions to sta­bi­lize early next year “as tighter mort­gage rules loosen their grip on mar­ket trends and low inter­est rates lure home­own­ers back into the market.”

    Com­ment: And those on the edge save up more to be able to get past those new mort­gage rules. This is only a tem­po­rary slump, things will pick up again in the spring.

    —————————————————————————————————–
    Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

    Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
    They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
    who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

    —————————————————————————————————–


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  • Is Toronto’s condo market at a crossroads?

    Mega-projects and tow­ers flood city despite grow­ing concerns

    Russ Blinch – Reuters

    Barry Fen­ton walked to the bank of floor-to-ceiling win­dows in his 30th-floor uptown Toronto pent­house suite and declared, “This is the best view of the city.”

    To the south, a mass of steel-and-glass sky­scrap­ers glinted in the bright autumn sun. Sev­eral cranes were in motion on unfin­ished build­ings, a com­mon sight in a city in the midst of a res­i­den­tial build­ing boom.

    If you look around the core, every build­ing you look at has a dif­fer­ent look to it, a dif­fer­ent ambi­ence,” said the ener­getic co-founder of Lanterra Devel­op­ments, one of the city’s most active builders. “That’s important.”

    Mr. Fen­ton, 56, says he is con­fi­dent the city’s con­do­minium mar­ket will remain strong – despite warn­ings that it is all mov­ing too far, too fast – and has an ambi­tious lineup for future devel­op­ment. And he is not alone in his optimism.

    Toronto’s seams are burst­ing with new condo and hotel tow­ers designed by star archi­tects like Frank Gehry and built by famed devel­op­ers like Don­ald Trump.

    But Mr. Fen­ton and oth­ers face for­mi­da­ble obsta­cles: an infra­struc­ture buck­ling under soar­ing den­sity rates, the laws of sup­ply and demand and preser­va­tion­ists who says too many new tow­ers are destroy­ing the city’s character.

    Canada’s cen­tral bank drew a bead on the city of 2.6 mil­lion this month in its weighty “Finan­cial Sys­tem Review,” warn­ing of “poten­tial future sup­ply imbal­ances” in the condo market.

    The Bank of Canada noted that the num­ber of unsold con­do­mini­ums in pre-construction has dou­bled, to 14,000, over the past year.

    Greater Toronto home sales have slowed after years of steady increases. Sales fell 16% in Novem­ber from the same month a year ago, accord­ing to the Toronto Real East Board. So far, how­ever, prices are flat­ten­ing, not falling, as some ana­lysts have predicted.

    In defi­ance of warn­ings by the cen­tral bank and econ­o­mists, two mega-projects were unveiled within days of each other in Octo­ber – a three-tower condo com­plex to be designed by Gehry and a multi-tower office project that includes a mas­sive casino.

    RACE TO THE TOP

    More sky­scrap­ers – 147 of them – are being built in Toronto than any­where in North Amer­ica, accord­ing to Empo­ris, the Ger­man data provider. That is twice as many as in New York, a city with about three times the population.

    Toronto is get­ting taller fast. Fif­teen build­ings that will be more than 150 meters high are under con­struc­tion, more than any­where in the west­ern hemisphere.

    The recently com­pleted Trump Inter­na­tional Hotel topped out at 277 meters, just shy of Toronto’s tallest sky­scraper, the 72-story First Cana­dian Place, which is 298 meters. That height could be exceeded by a cou­ple of major projects on the draw­ing boards, includ­ing the Mirvish project.

    (The city’s tallest free­stand­ing struc­ture, how­ever, is the CN Tower, which soars over Toronto at 553 meters.)

    Toronto is cre­at­ing a very sus­tain­able future by build­ing con­dos down­town,” said Daniel Libe­skind, the Amer­i­can archi­tect, who was in Toronto in Octo­ber for a cer­e­mony for one of his lat­est projects, the 57-story L Tower, with its sweep­ing, cur­va­ceous, design that rises above the city’s mod­ernist Sony Cen­ter for Per­form­ing Arts.

    It fights urban sprawl and brings peo­ple into the heart of the city.”

    While build­ing in big Amer­i­can cities and in West­ern Europe cratered fol­low­ing the finan­cial cri­sis four years ago, Toronto never stopped boom­ing. Demand for res­i­den­tial space has been strong, and while the office mar­ket has also been healthy, most of the new devel­op­ments have been for condo projects.

    Lanterra’s Mr. Fen­ton said his com­pany has built some 9,000 con­do­minium units in Toronto over the past 10 years and now has “in the hop­per” up to 6 mil­lion square feet of prop­erty in down­town Toronto that is being rezoned for new projects.

    Lanterra gained promi­nence over the past five years for the devel­op­ment of Maple Leaf Square, which included two condo tow­ers, a hotel and office space, near the city’s hockey shrine, Air Canada Cen­ter, on land that had sat vacant for years.

    Now it is “one of the hottest places to be,” said Mr. Fenton.

    ONE TOWER LEADS TO ANOTHER

    Some worry that Toronto can’t han­dle much more development.

    Despite decades of debate about trans­porta­tion pol­icy, Toronto has just two sub­way lines, a fleet of charm­ing but lum­ber­ing street­car lines and crum­bling roadways.

    Com­muters in Toronto spend at least 80 min­utes in traf­fic a day, on aver­age – worse than what com­muters face in Lon­don or Los Ange­les – accord­ing to the Toronto Board of Trade.

    Toronto’s City Plan­ning Depart­ment did not respond to numer­ous requests for comment.

    There is also con­cern about soar­ing neigh­bor­hood den­sity rates. The city’s water­front area has seen the most growth. Its pop­u­la­tion has soared 134% in a decade and is up 66% in the past five years, to 43,295, accord­ing to city data.

    Toronto’s aging energy grid is strained. In July, down­town Toronto endured an eight-hour black­out after a trans­former blew due to high demand. There was a sim­i­lar out­age last January.

    THE MEGA-PROJECTS

    Now two of the most ambi­tious projects the city has ever seen are being floated.

    First out of the gate was the­ater impre­sario David Mirvish, who with his father, the late Ed Mirvish, helped cre­ate Toronto’s vibrant arts and the­ater scene.

    In early Octo­ber, Mirvish unveiled a plan for three con­do­minium tow­ers, with up to 85 floors each, that would be the city’s tallest buildings.

    A podium at the build­ings’ base would house two muse­ums, includ­ing one for the Mirvish family’s con­tem­po­rary art collection.

    The Mirvish build­ings would be designed by Gehry, the cel­e­brated Canadian-born archi­tect whose 76-story 8 Spruce Street res­i­den­tial tower was just com­pleted in New York.

    These tow­ers can become a sym­bol of what Toronto can be,” the 83-year-old Mr. Gehry said at project’s unveil­ing. “I am not build­ing con­do­mini­ums, I am build­ing three sculp­tures for peo­ple to live in.”

    Two weeks later, Oxford Prop­er­ties Group, a Cana­dian devel­oper with a $20-billion global real estate port­fo­lio, announced a $3 bil­lion makeover of the down­town con­ven­tion cen­ter, just south of the Mirvish and Gehry project. It envi­sions a casino, two hotel tow­ers and two office tow­ers that would be among the tallest in the city.

    Adam Vaughan, a city coun­cilor whose dis­trict would encom­pass both projects, said a lot more plan­ning is needed. He had kinder words for the Mirvish pro­posal – “it’s a trans­for­ma­tive and aston­ish­ing pro­posal” – than for Oxford’s project, which he called “all out of proportion.”

    It’s time to have a really smart con­ver­sa­tion about how we are build­ing this neigh­bor­hood because there is a hell of lot of den­sity arriv­ing not just with this project but with all the projects that have been approved,” he said in an interview.

    AT THE KIT KAT

    Al Car­bone, owner for the past three decades of the Kit Kat restau­rant, doesn’t think peo­ple like Mr. Vaughan are lis­ten­ing to him, as the coun­cilor and other politi­cians are not heed­ing the grow­ing con­cerns about the rapid pace of development.

    He said build­ings are spring­ing up too close to lot lines, cre­at­ing jammed side­walks and alley­ways. And the sun does not shine on the streets like it once did.

    He sup­ports the Mirvish project, which would pre­serve his street, known as Restau­rant Row. But he is bat­tling a sep­a­rate 47-story build­ing that would go up steps away from his restaurant.

    The plan, which still must be approved, would retain the his­toric facades of build­ings on the street, which Mr. Car­bone believes will destroy the char­ac­ter of the row.

    It’s a tough bat­tle,” said Mr. Car­bone, who launched the web­site SaveR​estau​rantrow​.com to drum up sup­port in oppo­si­tion to the project. “You can’t have a condo on every corner.”

    WHERE IS TORONTO HEADED?

    Some believe Toronto is at a cross­roads as devel­op­ers, politi­cians and cit­i­zens debate the rapid changes the city’s urban landscape.

    David Lieber­man, an archi­tect who also teaches at the Uni­ver­sity of Toronto’s archi­tec­tural school, agrees the new devel­op­ments have been good for the city, but he is not sure the city’s cit­i­zens are ready for it.

    We have such an excel­lent oppor­tu­nity to get things right, but there is the Cana­dian con­ser­vatism,” Mr. Lieber­man said, sip­ping cof­fee in his stu­dio in an old down­town Toronto house. “Cana­di­ans in their city build­ing are not risk takers.”

    —————————————————————————————————–
    Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

    Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
    They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
    who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

    —————————————————————————————————–


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