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Tag Archives: credit crisis

Variable rate may no longer win

The answer to the age-old question of whether to go long or short on your mortgage is unclear yet again

Garry Marr, Financial Post

Not that there are a lot of people buying houses these days, but the answer to the age-old question of whether to go long or short on your mortgage is unclear yet again.

The Bank of Canada’s second quarter-of-a-point rate increase in the past two months is likely not going to do much to boost a real estate market that saw sales drop almost 20% across the country in June from a year ago.

The popular variable-rate product tied to prime that helped people buy a lot more house with more debt is going up too. The prime rate at the major banks, which tracks the Bank of Canada’s rate, is now at 2.75%.

But a funny thing happened as the Bank of Canada was raising rates. With much of the credit crisis seemingly behind us, the discounts on short-term borrowing are increasing as the cost of funds for banks also fall. Instead of borrowing at 100 basis points above prime, it’s now 70 basis points off prime.

At 2.05%, a variable-rate product today may look as attractive as ever, but the five-year fixed-rate closed mortgage is falling fast. It can now be had for a shade under 4%, says Rob McLister, editor of Canadian Mortgage Trends.

“Bond yields have fallen out of bed and nobody expected that,” said Mr. McLister, adding the spread between the five-year Government of Canada bonds and five-year mortgages is still large enough that the banks may reduce long-term rates even more. However, at about 4%, the five-year closed fixed-rate mortgage isn’t far off its record low.

Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri does agree that variable-rate products have worked out better than fixed-rate mortgages throughout history, but says the tide may be turning.

“Given that the central bank has already raised rates a couple of times now and will likely continue to raise rates, it probably is a correct assumption to make,” says Mr. Guatieri, noting variable usually works in a declining interest-rate environment. “The next five years might not quite follow the past. You could probably argue it’s wiser to lock in now. It’s a close call.”

Bank of Montreal is forecasting another 25 basis point move in September and says rates will climb another 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2011. If Mr. Guatieri and others are right, by 2012, the variable-rate products out today would clock in at just above 3.75%, if the discounting remains the same.

“If you are still in that variable-rate product then, you’d have to sweat out the next three years because there would still be possibly more increases,” says Mr. Guatieri, who adds his bank sees the overnight rate eventually going to 4% in the following three years. Based on the present gap between the Bank of Canada and prime, that would place the variable-rate product you get today at 6% by around 2015.

Fears of such a scenario are driving people into fixed-rate products again. That, plus new mortgage rules that make it easier to qualify for a mortgage if you go for a fixed-rate product with a term of five years or longer.

“The Bank of Canada is doing what it said — it’s going ahead with rate increases. If I was counselling someone, the prediction is rates are going up, so now is a good time to consider locking in for a term,” says Don Lawby, president of Century 21 Canada.

It makes sense, but with variable rate still at around 2%, it’s easy to see why people wouldn’t want to lock in. Even Mr. Guatieri says if you are secure in your financial situation and don’t need to fix your mortgage payments, “you might just want to let it ride.”

There just never seems to be a clear answer on whether to lock in or stay variable.

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information  -  416-388-1960

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Flaherty to fight for mortgage market

Opposes bank tax

Paul Vieira, Financial Post

Canada stepped up its fight against overzealous bank regulation, with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty pledging to fight against new rules that could unravel the country’s unique mortgage market — one of the few to come out of the global financial crisis relatively unscathed.

Further, he has written a letter to his Group of 20 colleagues to reiterate Canada’s stern opposition to a global bank tax advocated by Britain and France and that appears to be gaining support in the United States. Instead, he threw his support behind a Canadian compromise that would be more market-oriented but ensure lenders would have access to capital in the event they run into trouble.

“We are not going o have Canadian banks disadvantaged because they performed well, and [because] we have solid system in this country — whereby systems in other countries didn’t work as well,” Mr. Flaherty told reporters yesterday.

The forceful talk from Mr. Flaherty indicates Canada plans to use its influence as a home to a well-functioning financial system in trying to shape the new global rules aimed at preventing another credit crisis that threw the global economy into a deep recession. The hardening of Canada’s opposition also reflects growing uneasiness among Canadian banks about the reforms.

Last week, two chief executives from big Canadian banks warned of changes under consideration that would alter the country’s mortgage market and encourage behaviour seen in the United States that led to the subprime crisis.

Gordon Nixon, chief executive of Royal Bank of Canada, described the provision as “absurd.”

The new standards, being developed by the so-called Basel committee, fail to take into account that insured Canadian mortgages are guaranteed by the federal government.

If adopted, Canadian banks would be forced to have the same amount of capital against their mortgages as a bank in another country operating in a riskier environment with no state backing. As a result, Canadian lenders may have to package more of their mortgages and sell them to investors, like U.S. banks did to great detriment, or issue fewer mortgages.

“This is another item we need to discuss in terms of global financial reform,” Mr. Flaherty said, adding he would be advocating for an “appropriate” calculation for capital so Canadian banks aren’t penalized.

“The Canadian mortgage situation is rather different than in the United States,” he said, in reference to how Canadian banks didn’t engage, for the most part, in the type of subprime lending that led to the U.S. housing collapse once financial conditions turned sour.

Countries that had to bail out its banks with direct cash infusions have warmed to the idea of a bank tax, to ensure governments recoup the monies used to keep their financial systems afloat. But Mr. Flaherty reiterated yesterday Ottawa’s official opposition, as first reported in February by the Financial Post.

He suggested many of the countries supporting the bank tax happen to be “running substantial deficits,” and expressed concern money raised by the bank tax might be used to pay down fiscal debt as opposed to being set aside for times of trouble.

“The principle,” he said, “is that banks that contributed to the financial crisis, they should bear the cost–not taxpayers.”

The International Monetary Fund, in a paper this week, warned that slapping a surcharge on banks could reduce lending banks conduct at a time when the global economy needs credit the most.

In his letter to his G20 peers, he asked them to consider an alternative put forth recently by Julie Dickson, Canada’s chief bank regulator, whereby financial institutions insure themselves against failure by issuing debt that can be converted into equity at times of trouble. Ms. Dickson called the scheme “embedded capital.”

“I think we are taking a leadership position on this because we are putting forward an alternative to a bank tax or levy,” Mr. Flaherty said, hinting that a number of G20 countries might side with Canada in its fight.

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information  -  416-388-1960

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Real estate market becoming more balanced in Canada in post credit crisis era

Property Wire

Overall property sales are slowing in Canada but some locations, most notably Toronto, are seeing gains in what is regarded by experts as a more balanced real estate market.

With rising activity in Toronto offset by lower activity in Vancouver, the number of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service systems of Canadian real estate boards edged lower in February. In recent months, national sales activity has slowed while new listings continue to rise, resulting in a more balanced national resale housing market, it is claimed.

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association, seasonally adjusted national home sales edged down 1.5% in February.

Activity declined mostly in Vancouver, but this was offset by an equally large gain in Toronto. Sales were also down in a number of other British Columbia housing markets. Since there were no significant gains in sales activity elsewhere in Canada, the national figure for sales activity was pulled slightly lower.

“The Olympic Winter Games may have impacted February sales activity in British Columbia, so activity for the province in March will be closely watched,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger.

“Activity is expected to remain elevated in Ontario and British Columbia over the first half of the year, with buyers looking to beat the introduction of the HST and expected interest rate hikes,” he added.

Across the country, actual, not seasonally adjusted, residential sales activity was up 44% in February compared with the same month last year. New records for February activity were set in Ontario and Quebec. But the year over year gain in national activity was smaller than those of the previous three months.

The residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 18.7% year over year in February. The seasonally adjusted number of new listings across Canada climbed another 2.4% on a month over month basis in February to reach 73,849 units, the highest level since October 2008. Five consecutive monthly increases have lifted new listings 16.3% above where they stood last September, when they had fallen to the lowest level since late 2005, the data also shows.

As with sales activity, new listings in February 2010 were up most in Ontario and down most in British Columbia. Strong resale housing demand continues to draw down inventories, but supply is shrinking at a decreasing rate because of slightly softer sales activity and an increase in new listings in recent months.

“Housing markets are becoming more balanced. There are still a number of major markets where sales negotiations favour the seller due to a shortage of inventory, but supply has begun rising. Further expected supply increases will continue to take the steam out of housing markets as the year progresses,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump.

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information  -  416-388-1960

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