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Tag Archives: economic uncertainty

Compared to global real estate markets, Canada is mostly average

Kit Kadlec – Cana­dian Real Estate Wealth

Canada’s recent hous­ing price gains still only leave it in the mid­dle of the pack glob­ally, accord­ing to a Sco­tia­Bank report out Tuesday.

House prices here have risen 85% since 1998, but that’s “rel­a­tively small” com­pared with some other global mar­kets, said econ­o­mist Adri­enne Warren.

Ire­land, for exam­ple, had prices gain 330% between 1992 and 2007, and despite three straight years of double-digit price decline since, it still has one of the largest over­all price gain in the bank’s sam­ple of 12 West­ern coun­tries. Ireland’s aver­age home price on the inflation-adjusted index is still up 149% since 1992.

Aus­tralian prices are up 114% since 1996, while UK prices are up 174% since 1995 – rep­re­sent­ing two of the other largest price gains in recent years for West­ern countries.

In con­trast, the U.S. seems to be least over­val­ued, with prices back to mid-1990s lev­els, and down 31% from a 2005 peak. Japan is still recov­er­ing from its pre-90s boom, hav­ing real house prices drop 50% since 1991, accord­ing to Scotiabank’s inflation-adjusted index.

In the shorter term, Canada has had the best per­for­mance in price gain in 2011, ris­ing 4.8% this past third quar­ter above the same aver­age price in the third quar­ter in 2010.

Canada falls in the mid­dle of the pack,” said War­ren in the report.

Only France, up 4.4%, and Switzer­land, up 3.3%, also had price gains over that same period. Ire­land was down 14.7% from last year, fol­lowed by a 8.9% decline in Spain and 7.5% slip in the U.S. prices.

The report was vague in pre­dict­ing a more bal­anced Cana­dian real estate mar­ket in 2012.

While the sector’s con­tin­ued buoy­ancy is impres­sive, monthly data through Novem­ber sug­gest prices have lev­eled off since the spring, with con­di­tions in the major­ity of local mar­kets in ‘bal­anced’ ter­ri­tory,” wrote War­ren. “Ultra-low inter­est rates are still attract­ing buy­ers, but increased eco­nomic uncer­tainty com­bined with some recent slow­ing in the pace of hir­ing could dampen demand in the new year.”

War­ren said that while the U.S. hous­ing mar­ket is near its bot­tom, no turn­around is likely in the near future, due to weak eco­nomic con­di­tions and tight lend­ing restric­tions that are keep­ing many out of the market.

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

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Canada’s property market a standout amid global slump

Canoe​.ca Money

Canada’s prop­erty mar­ket is cool­ing, but still stands out as one of the best per­form­ing in the devel­oped world, accord­ing to a report by Sco­tia Economics.

Exist­ing home prices rose 5% in the sec­ond quar­ter, the same pace as gains in the first quar­ter of the year, the bank’s Global Real Estate Report found. Fig­ures for July and August point to sta­ble sales and a lev­el­ing out of prices.

Out of the nine mar­kets stud­ied in the report only Canada, France and Switzer­land recorded price gains in the sec­ond quar­ter, it said.

In the major­ity of the major mar­kets we track in North Amer­ica, Europe and Aus­trala­sia, inflation-adjusted home prices declined on a year-over-year basis in the sec­ond quar­ter of 2011,” said Adri­enne War­ren, senior econ­o­mist and real estate spe­cial­ist at Sco­tia Eco­nom­ics. “While Canada’s hot hous­ing mar­ket also has begun to cool, it remains a notable outperformer.”

War­ren said in many mar­kets his­tor­i­cally low inter­est rates cou­pled with a slump in prices has made homes more afford­able. In nor­mal times that would prob­a­bly be enough to jump-start the mar­ket, she said.

How­ever, these aren’t nor­mal times and the ongo­ing uncer­tainty cre­ated by the finan­cial cri­sis in Europe and high unem­ploy­ment have con­vinced many con­sumers to save and pay off debt rather than make major purchases.

Height­ened eco­nomic uncer­tainty com­bined with recent signs of a loss of momen­tum in Canada’s jobs mar­ket could keep some poten­tial buy­ers on the side­lines for the time being,” she said, adding that the bank is fore­cast­ing a slight slow­down in sales and flat prices for the rest of the year.

France so far has man­aged to buck the trend of slump­ing prop­erty prices in the euro zone, with real estate ris­ing 5% year-over-year in the sec­ond quar­ter. Switzerland’s prop­erty prices rose 4%.

Else­where the slump showed lit­tle signs of slow­ing in the sec­ond quar­ter, with prices in Spain tum­bling 10% after a 9% slide in the first quar­ter. Ireland’s prop­erty slide also accel­er­ated with a 14% drop in the sec­ond quar­ter fol­low­ing a 12% decline in the first.

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

———————————————————————————————————————

Why it’s the best time ever to be a Canadian

By many global mea­sures we are a blessed bas­tion of priv­i­lege, peace, freedom—and big roomy houses

Macleans

We are Canada. At 144 years we are nei­ther young nor old, as nations go. And nations do come and do go, it bears remem­ber­ing. You don’t have to be very old to appre­ci­ate that the world map that occu­pied a cor­ner of your child­hood class­room is a relic of another age; that bor­ders once drawn in blood aren’t indeli­ble at all, they are just lines to be moved, or bent or erased by pop­u­lar will. Yet, here we are, still in this together, and doing rather well.

Like any wor­thy anniver­sary, it is deserv­ing of cel­e­bra­tion but also of the appre­ci­a­tion that future years together aren’t guar­an­teed, they must be earned, and mutu­ally agreed upon. Back when Canada was a mere pup of 115 years, Ralph Klein, then the brash young mayor of a brash young Cal­gary, called Canada, “per­haps the only coun­try in the world held together by curios­ity.” He asked if such a con­fed­er­a­tion of inter­ests and regions can endure. “[N]o one is quite pre­pared to give up on her yet,” he said, “as if we all have some lin­ger­ing desire to see how this ongo­ing exer­cise in nation-building ends.”

And why not? No. 143 was not the eas­i­est of years, but it was largely free of any soul-sucking exis­ten­tial debate on Canada’s future. There was a fed­eral elec­tion, and no one died in the process. Eco­nomic uncer­tainty lingers, but we emerged stronger than the year before, and health­ier in most every sense than a long list of wealthy, devel­oped nations. And, yes, let’s not lose sight of that inar­guable fact: we are rich.

Read on. Our Canada Day gift to you is a gen­tle reminder that by many global mea­sures we are a blessed bas­tion of priv­i­lege, peace, freedom—and big roomy houses.

REAL ESTATE: We have the roomi­est homes on earth

You’d never know it from watch­ing MTV Cribs, a pro­gram where rap­per 50 Cent once showed off his 50,000-sq.-foot Con­necti­cut man­sion (18 bed­rooms, 25 bath­rooms, an ele­va­tor, two bil­liard rooms), but the aver­age Cana­dian fam­ily actu­ally has their Amer­i­can coun­ter­parts beat when it comes to liv­ing large. A recent sur­vey by the Organ­i­sa­tion for Eco­nomic Co-operation and Devel­op­ment (OECD) found the aver­age Cana­dian home boasts 2.5 rooms per per­son, more than the 2.3 room aver­age in the U.S., and the high­est among the 34 OECD mem­ber coun­tries, where the aver­age was just 1.6 rooms.

Canada’s reign­ing sta­tus as a coun­try of big, roomy houses is a direct result of our hot real estate mar­ket, which escaped the global eco­nomic down­turn rel­a­tively unscathed. While the U.S. has yet to recover from the sub­prime mort­gage cri­sis and the sub­se­quent reces­sion, Cana­di­ans have con­tin­ued to take advan­tage of rock-bottom inter­est rates to buy big­ger and bet­ter prop­er­ties, forc­ing prices ever higher. That includes first-time home­buy­ers who aban­doned cramped rental suites for more spa­cious con­dos, and exist­ing home­own­ers who jumped at the oppor­tu­nity to sell into a hot mar­ket and move into their dream homes. More impres­sive is that Cana­di­ans have man­aged all this while work­ing an aver­age of just 1,699 hours a year. That’s well below what the aver­age Amer­i­can works (1,768 hours) and the OECD aver­age (1,739 hours).

The country’s infat­u­a­tion with home own­er­ship has been a boon for real estate agents, lawyers, house “fluffers” and con­trac­tors of all stripes. Mean­while, retail­ers like Rona and Cana­dian Tire are rid­ing a result­ing wave of DIY home improve­ment efforts. (It’s no coin­ci­dence that when Ottawa sought to prop up the econ­omy in 2009, it intro­duced a pop­u­lar tax credit of up to $1,350 for Cana­di­ans who spent money on home ren­o­va­tions.) Canada has even man­aged to accom­plish a rare feat in the world of tele­vi­sion after HGTV Canada launched the pro­gram Prop­erty Vir­gins in 2006, only to have the series expanded to the U.S. mar­ket the fol­low­ing sea­son (Cana­dian view­ers were also treated to their own ver­sion of MTV Cribs around the same time).

But before we get too cocky, it’s worth recall­ing that we got here largely by bor­row­ing a lot of money. Cana­dian house­hold debt lev­els now sit at 146.9 per cent of income. That’s sig­nif­i­cantly higher than the 130 per cent reached in the U.S. prior to the crash (it has since fallen to 113 per cent). With Cana­dian home­own­ers increas­ingly stretched thin, some econ­o­mists are wor­ried about the country’s abil­ity to with­stand another eco­nomic shock. On the other hand, cash-strapped Cana­di­ans will always have the option of rent­ing out an extra room to make ends meet.

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

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