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Tag Archives: global economic crisis

Waiting game rarely pays off for buyers

Stephen Dupuis – Yourhome​.ca

It was a great sum­mer for home build­ing as well as home buy­ing, notwith­stand­ing the unusu­ally high num­ber of stud­ies and reports by finan­cial insti­tu­tions and think tanks mak­ing wild pre­dic­tions about the trend line for home sales and prices.

Pre­dictably, the reports that got the most ink were the ones fore­cast­ing doom and gloom, while the more bal­anced views of agen­cies like Canada Mort­gage and Hous­ing Corp. went largely unreported.

It’s true but not sur­pris­ing that hous­ing sales have eased off from the euphoric lev­els posted dur­ing the recov­ery phase fol­low­ing the global eco­nomic cri­sis, but the mar­ket is still hum­ming along, albeit at a more sus­tain­able pace. New home sales through the first seven months of this year are run­ning 44% ahead of last year. Mean­while, the lowrise and high­rise price index is up 10% and 9.2% respec­tively, year over year.

Accord­ing to the Third Quar­ter CMHC Hous­ing Mar­ket Out­look, exist­ing home sales will mod­er­ate from peak lev­els, as we are see­ing, but will sta­bi­lize by the early part of 2011, which is just around the cor­ner. “Improved afford­abil­ity will boost sales later in 2011,” CMHC says.

As for resale home prices, CMHC pre­dicts the same pat­tern with prices sta­bi­liz­ing later this year. “Recov­er­ing demand will boost prices through 2011,” the agency’s news release adds.

CMHC notes that demand for sin­gle detached homes will weaken in “pricier Ontario mar­kets” while ris­ing car­ry­ing costs will boost demand for con­dos. I read that to mean that prices are going up, not down, with buy­ers shift­ing to more afford­able unit types in response.

George Car­ras, pres­i­dent of Real­Net Canada Inc., has cer­tainly found evi­dence of that mar­ket shift, not­ing that the fastest mov­ing prod­uct types these days are town­homes, stacked town­homes, midrise apart­ments and high­rise con­dos, with an increas­ing pro­por­tion of the lat­ter being recorded in the 905 regions. In a word, afford­abil­ity is dri­ving the mar­ket, as it always does.

As for those think tank reports, if you are among those read­ers who bought into the Cana­dian Cen­tre for Pol­icy Alter­na­tives report that we have a hous­ing price bub­ble that is about to burst, you should also read the C.D. Howe Insti­tute report titled Not Here — Hous­ing Mar­ket Pol­icy and the Risk of a Hous­ing Mar­ket Bust, posted at cdhowe​.ca.

Com­ment­ing on the CCPA report in an inter­nal newslet­ter to builders, BILD’s eco­nomic advi­sor, Dr. Frank Clay­ton, stated “it’s unbe­liev­able what passes for research and gets the media all excited. The just-released report by the Cana­dian Cen­tre for Pol­icy Alter­na­tives is the prod­uct of shoddy research and is unsup­ported by the facts.”

Clay­ton goes on to say that “the report fails to con­nect post-2000 hous­ing price trends to impor­tant vari­ables like declin­ing mort­gage inter­est rates, ris­ing incomes and local fac­tors like a con­strained sup­ply of lowrise ser­viced land and now the HST in Ontario. Besides, the report shows that the increase in aver­age real home prices (prices with gen­eral infla­tion removed) in the GTA has been “rel­a­tively modest.”

I don’t want to come across like the guy in the check­ered jacket preach­ing that there has never been a bet­ter time to buy a new home, but I also hate to see buy­ers hold­ing off because some think tank said a wait­ing game might pay off, because it rarely does.

You can’t go wrong if you’re buy­ing for the right rea­sons — shel­ter, secu­rity and long-term growth.

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion  -  416−388−1960

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Our forecast calls for sunny with blue skies

Stephen Dupuis, Toronto Sun

Last week, I let readers in on the highlights of the inaugural address of the newly elected president of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, Victor Fiume, of Durham Custom Homes.

BILD wishes Fiume well as he takes over the reins from Gary Friend, a Vancouver builder who led his industry at the national level with great distinction throughout one of the most challenging years ever faced by a CHBA president given the global economic crisis that dominated Friend’s tenure.

Fiume’s speech was given in Victoria, B.C., where spring was about a month ahead of schedule with the trees blossoming, the flowers pushing up and the grass green and growing.

As if picking up on the optimism that always comes with spring, the economic presentations we heard were quite encouraging. As Dr. Peter Andersen, consulting economist to the CHBA told builders, “fears of a double-dip recession have been put on the back-burner and it looks like we’re in for a sustainable recovery.”

Andersen declared that the recession ended in August, 2009, described 2010 as a “transition year” and said the true recovery would kick-in next year with 4-5% growth.

Unfortunately that economic growth rate will bring with it rising rates but that’s next year — for the balance of this year, Andersen sees rates as being on hold. Holding at the lowest levels in 50 years is a very good thing.

Further to the rosy forecast, Andersen noted that part-time employment is up adding that employers typically bring on part-timers as a prelude to hiring full-time.

Renovation bug

Commenting on house prices, Andersen stated that he sees no sign of runaway prices and wondered out loud why all the fuss. “I don’t buy the bubble theory,” he stated. “Prices are just getting back to where they were before the economic crisis,” he added. Andersen also offered a very interesting perspective on the renovation market.

Where the conventional wisdom says that market may go down due to all the activity brought forward by the Home Renovation Tax Credit, he thinks that activity just primed the pump and now that homeowners have caught the renovation bug, they will just move onto the next project. Sounds plausible to me.

Shout-outs

The good news is that Ontario builders were part of a British Columbia/Ontario sweep of the recent Canadian Home Builders’ Association Sales & Marketing (SAM) awards.

The bad news is that of the eight awards taken by Ontario builders, only two winners hailed from the GTA, but they are both deserving of a shout-out, so hats off to Empire Communities who got the award for Best Brochure/Kit for Fly Condos, besting builders from Victoria, Calgary, Ottawa and Hamilton.

A big tip of the hat to Bachly Construction of Bolton, Ont. who captured the award for Best Single Detached Home (over 4,000 sq. ft.) against heavy competition from Vancouver, Kamloops and Delta, B.C., as well as a place called Quispamiss, N.B.

The Bachly house is well worth checking out at www.bachly.com (click on featured home). Last but not least, BILD congratulates former local president Joe Valela of Valemont Homes on his election to the CHBA Executive Board, and Mike Cochren of Oakville-based Cochren Homes (and a RenoMark contractor) on his appointment to that board.

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information  -  416-388-1960

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  • Laps of luxury on King

    Olivia Stren, National Post

    “Just wait to see what Toronto will be in the next 10 years. It’ll blow your mind,” real estate developer and king of King Street Peter Freed tells me in his typically mellow way. For a man who seems to acquire land and throw up design-conscious buildings the way others brush their teeth (a global economic crisis did nothing to slow his pace) he speaks with the sort of drowsy, mid-nap calm you’d expect from someone reclined on a massage table. (Instead, we’re sitting at his boardroom table of Freed HQ.)

    “This is finally Toronto’s time,” he announces tranquilly. It’s also, evidently, Freed’s time: His 550 Wellington condo project is nearing completion, while its adjunct Thompson Hotel (the first international Thompson property) is slated to open in May. To go along with the hotel – and eventually command two square acres of land – is the latest jewel in the Freed crown: the Thompson Residences.

    “In terms of major design-driven projects, Toronto has basically been ignored on the global stage. And that’s one of my favourite things about Toronto: There’s so much opportunity here,” Mr. Freed says. “It’s so hard to stand out in New York or London or Los Angeles. Here, it’s not that hard.”

    But Mr. Freed himself doesn’t seem inclined to do the standing out; he leaves the business of head-turning to his buildings. His choice to join forces with Thompson – a brand specializing in things attention thieving (i.e. its celebrity guests) – has already proven savvy. “With the Thompson Hotel component, 550 Wellington has been our most successful project ever,” Mr. Freed says.

    The Thompson Residences (the U.S. hotel brand’s inaugural foray into real estate), with 310 suites ranging in price from $219,900 to $2-million, is set to command the former Travelodge Hotel’s choice King West locale. It was Mr. Freed’s fantasy site. “It was the dream. But every developer in the world wanted to buy that site. The Travelodge’s owners were getting calls every day, but when the owners decided to sell, they called me directly and gave me first dibs,” says Mr. Freed, with a Cheshire cat’s contentment. “With it, we want to build our most spectacular building yet,” he says with uncharacteristic hyperbole.

    Like the Thompson’s first hotel, Manhattan’s 60 Thompson (on SoHo’s Thompson Street), the Toronto Residences will be fashioned to set a new bar in urban swank. Designed by Thomas O’Brien, 60 Thompson opened in 2001 to be the final word on hip hostelries. If now hardly avant-garde, the boutique property’s neutral-toned suites, faux-suede headboards and velour pillows, and its slick, animal-hide-clad bar served up a winsome formula. “Every time I called 60 Thompson, I couldn’t get a room,” Mr. Freed says. (The hotel remains perpetually booked and celebrity packed; on a recent visit, I spotted a unitard-sporting Fergie mid photo-shoot in the Thom bar.)

    The Residences’ most spectacular feature will be its rooftop pool and cabanas, courtesy of Diego Burdi and Paul Filek, principles of top Toronto design firm Burdifilek. “It’s going to be a rooftop Shangri La,” Mr. Burdi says. “From the street, all you’ll get is a glimpse of a tree canopy. It’ll be a secret world. But as soon as you step out of the elevator capsule and on to the pool deck, you’ll be completely transported. It’ll feel very global, like you could be anywhere in the world.” At 140 feet, it will be the longest rooftop pool in North America, stealing the apparently coveted title (who knew?) from Miami’s Gansevoort Hotel (which claims a 110-foot pool). But, unlike that South Beach leisure ground, this pool, Mr. Burdi insists, will be an “adult space.”

    “I’m sick of walking into places and feeling too old,” Mr. Burdi says. “It should be fun and flirty, but it’ll also be elegant and comfortable. It’ll be like a hotel lobby, but on the roof!” It will also – let’s be honest, Toronto is not Miami – be a very seasonal space. But after bikini season, as brief as the suits themselves, residents will have plenty of options in the way of indulgence: the Residences will claim a screening room, a health club, private dining rooms. And residents will also be privy to all of Thompson Hotel’s amenities: a yoga studio, 30,000 square feet of retail space, a 24-hour diner and chef Scott Conant’s haute-rustic Italian restaurant (and New York import) Scarpetta. (Save yourself the airfare to Rome and try Mr. Conant’s signature tomato-basil spaghetti. Trust me.)

    “I remember this neighbourhood when it was so desolate at night, you could shoot a cannon through the streets,” says Mr. Freed, unfurling renderings for the Thompson Residences, like a sovereign studying a map of soon-to-be-charted territories, “I knew it could change. And it has.”

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    Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information  -  416-388-1960

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