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Tag Archives: real estate sector

Toronto on the Rise

Rapid population growth and a stable economy are fueling a construction boom in this Canadian metropolis.

By Alex Bozikovic – Architectural Record

In most North American cities, active construction cranes are a rare sight these days. But in downtown Toronto, they’re ubiquitous, lifting up steel beams and glass panels for new towers in Canada’s largest metropolis, where the population—currently at 2.5 million—is gaining 80,000 to 100,000 people per year.

While the U.S. construction market remains in the doldrums, Toronto’s real-estate sector has been humming along since the late 1990s, with only a brief slowdown in 2008. Today, the research service Emporis is tracking 147 high-rise buildings, among other projects, under construction in Toronto; the majority are residential and office buildings in the urban core, although towers are also popping up in the suburbs. In terms of design, most of these buildings won’t turn heads. But some developers are tapping top talent in hopes of creating architectural standouts.

“We’re very excited about what’s coming,” says Alfredo Romano, head of Castlepoint Realty, one of the developers of 3C Lakeshore, a 2.4 million-square-foot district that Foster + Partners is master-planning for a former docklands. Romano says the 13-acre, mixed-use site will feature “signature towers” by Foster, along with buildings by the local firms Kuwabara Payne McKenna Blumberg and architectsAlliance.

The project is part of a larger initiative, dubbed Waterfront Toronto, to reimagine roughly 2,000 acres on Lake Ontario. West 8 has designed a series of promenades, while Michael van Valkenburgh has proposed an 18-acre park to anchor a new neighborhood. Buildings by Moshe Safdie, Pelli Clarke Pelli, and Saucier + Perrotte are now in the works. Ultimately, the Waterfront Toronto project will accommodate 40,000 residents.

Why are developers in Toronto so bullish? Romano cites the city’s consistent population growth, for starters. “Then, on a macro level, the economy is stable and secure,” he adds. “We have a strong banking sector, and our development model is a lot more conservative than in other places.” Local banks typically require new buildings to be 70% sold before construction begins, and mortgage lending is tighter here than in the United States. For projects with rental housing, many of the landlords are recent immigrants, from China or South Asia, who see real estate as a solid, long-term investment.

The city’s development boom isn’t free of criticism. Suburban sprawl, highway gridlock, and a transit system pushed to capacity are among the gripes. “We have a city that isn’t proactively planned, and hasn’t been for years now,” says Meg Graham, principal of the firm Superkül Architect and a professor at the University of Toronto’s architecture school.

Given the sharp market downturns in other major cities, there also are fears in Toronto of a real-estate bubble and bust, and most experts agree that a market correction is inevitable. Still, the downtown area appears relatively stable. Through the 1970s, Toronto resisted urban-renewal projects, and its prewar neighborhoods remained vital. (Jane Jacobs, who lived in the Annex neighborhood from 1968 until her death in 2006, was a major figure here.)

Good public schools, ample social services, recreational facilities, and a diverse population—over 50 percent of Torontonians are now foreign-born—make the city attractive to young people. Indeed, many of the new towers are catering to single professionals and young families who want urban lifestyles and are willing to live in small spaces. A 500-square-foot condo in the downtown area costs at least $300,000.

Moreover, the downtown is attracting a fair share of wealthy residents. For a site along a busy road in the exclusive Yorkville district, the local firm Hariri Pontarini Architects is designing a six-story luxury condominium with limestone and glass cladding. Its 10 units (starting at 1,800 square feet) are priced from $2 million to $5 million; half have sold. “People have developed an appetite for apartment living. I think the city is anticipating a dramatic shift toward a more sophisticated, European environment,” says architect Siamak Hariri, who was born in Germany and studied at Yale.

Locally, everyone is talking about Toronto gaining world-class status; certainly, it is rivaling Montreal for the title of Canada’s cultural capital. For Hariri, Toronto offers a higher quality of life than any global metropolis. “Look at our restaurants, our live music, our galleries. People are dressing well,” he says. “It’s not a great jump to make this a better city.”

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

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  • Canada’s new housing price index in August shows stability

    Alex Car­rick, Chief Econ­o­mist – CanaData

    The new hous­ing price index (NHPI) in Canada inched ahead 0.1% in August ver­sus Sep­tem­ber, accord­ing to Sta­tis­tics Canada. It gained back the 0.1% month-to-month decline that was recorded in the pre­vi­ous period.

    The nom­i­nal level of the index has recov­ered to just about where it was prior to the reces­sion. New home prices were at a peak in early to mid 2008. In mid-2009, they were down 4.0%, but that drop has since been reclaimed.

    The August year-over-year change in the NHPI nation-wide was +2.9%. The “house only” sub-component was +4.5% and “land only” was –0.2%.

    In the months ahead, the NHPI will serve as a valu­able indi­ca­tor of where over­all hous­ing mar­kets are headed.

    The con­sen­sus of ana­lysts is that res­i­den­tial real estate is in line for a cor­rec­tion through the end of this year and prob­a­bly most of next year.

    But how steep will the price adjust­ment be? The fact that new home prices are remain­ing firm, so far, is an early indi­ca­tion that the dete­ri­o­ra­tion may not be as severe as per­haps feared.

    For the sake of the econ­omy, a soft land­ing would be most desirable.

    There are sev­eral rea­sons to expect a slow­ing in hous­ing demand.

    Eco­nomic growth has clearly been mod­er­at­ing in both the U.S. and Canada. Poten­tial buy­ers are becom­ing more cau­tious as they fret over their job prospects.

    Resale home mar­kets have soft­ened con­sid­er­ably. When the Bank of Canada low­ered its trend– set­ting inter­est rate to rock bot­tom in early 2009, demand was arti­fi­cially stim­u­lated in the res­i­den­tial real estate sector.

    How­ever, the era of record-low inter­est rates has now ended with three recent 25 basis point increases (where 100 basis points equals 1.00%) in the tar­get overnight rate.

    This is not to say that rates are any­thing but still excep­tion­ally low. How­ever, the per­cep­tion is that they are more likely to rise than fall in the future.

    Fur­ther­more, the rules for mort­gage approvals have been tight­ened, adding to the list of inhibit­ing fac­tors for home sales.

    Har­mo­nized Sales Tax intro­duc­tions in B.C. and Ontario are play­ing an inter­est­ing role in the NHPI. For­merly, provin­cial sales taxes on build­ing mate­ri­als were embed­ded in the price of new homes.

    How­ever, the NHPI is based on the mar­ket sell­ing price less value-added taxes (e.g., the HST). In other words, the new HST appli­ca­tions intro­duce a down­ward bias to the NHPI.

    There­fore the year-over-year change in the NHPI value under­states what has hap­pened in terms of the actual (tax included) sell­ing prices that buy­ers have been seeing.

    Accord­ing to major cities, the largest year-over-year per­cent­age increases have occurred in Regina (+6.1%), Win­nipeg (+5.3%), St. John’s (+4.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+4.5%), Van­cou­ver (+4.4%), Saska­toon (+3.8%) and Toronto-Oshawa (+3.5%).

    The only declines have been recorded in Char­lot­te­town (-2.2%), Sudbury-Thunder Bay (-1.8%), Wind­sor (-1.3%) and Vic­to­ria (-0.4%).

    The NHPI is for single-family hous­ing and does not take into con­sid­er­a­tion multi-unit prop­er­ties. It is in the lat­ter seg­ment of the mar­ket where pos­si­bly sig­nif­i­cant price reduc­tions are more likely to appear, given that there are large inven­to­ries of unsold condo units in sev­eral major cities.

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    Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion  -  416−388−1960

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    Ottawa ponders further tightening of mortgage rules

    Garry Marr and Paul Vieira, Finan­cial Post

    The fed­eral gov­ern­ment is once again look­ing at tight­en­ing rules in the Cana­dian mort­gage mar­ket, accord­ing to a source close to the situation.

    Finance offi­cials are set to meet in Ottawa on Mon­day with some of the country’s lead­ing econ­o­mists for pre-budget dis­cus­sions and the sub­ject of whether to tighten hous­ing reg­u­la­tions may come up.

    Much of the dis­cus­sion about chang­ing the mort­gage rules seems to stem from com­ments made by the Bank of Canada gov­er­nor who last week warned that con­sumer bor­row­ing could not con­tinue at its present clip.

    Cana­dian house­hold bal­ance sheets are becom­ing increas­ingly stretched,” said Mark Car­ney, who issued a warn­ing to leg­is­la­tors about tak­ing steps to con­tain the growth of per­sonal debt. “His­tor­i­cally low pol­icy rates, even if appro­pri­ate to achieve the infla­tion tar­get, cre­ate their own risks.”

    A spokesman for the Finance Min­is­ter said tough­en­ing exist­ing rules on mort­gage eli­gi­bil­ity is not on the agenda on Mon­day when Jim Fla­herty meets with econ­o­mists. The spokesman added the gov­ern­ment has already addressed the real estate sec­tor in ini­tia­tives intro­duced ear­lier this year.

    But Craig Alexan­der, chief econ­o­mist with TD Bank Finan­cial Group, said while he hasn’t heard spe­cific talk about changes to mort­gage rules he could see it hap­pen­ing if the mar­ket heated up again.

    There is grow­ing con­cern about the growth of debt. It’s now 146% of per­sonal dis­pos­able income and the bulk of that is secured debt — mort­gage debt or home equity lines of credit,” said Mr. Alexan­der, adding the worry is that if long-term rates remain low or go even lower it could once again ignite the hous­ing market.

    He said the eas­i­est way for the gov­ern­ment to tighten rules would be to tweak the income test require­ment. Instead of con­sumers qual­i­fy­ing for government-back mort­gages based on the rate on their con­tracts — the case for terms five years or longer — they would be tested on the posted rate, which is con­sid­er­ably higher and requires more income.

    In April, the gov­ern­ment adjusted mort­gage rules to force con­sumers to qual­ify based on posted rates but left in a loop­hole that allowed the dis­counted rate for terms longer than five years. It also increased the min­i­mum down pay­ment for invest­ment prop­er­ties to 20% from 5%.

    Those moves came after the gov­ern­ment imposed require­ments in 2007 that forced con­sumers to have a min­i­mum of 5% down on a home and low­ered amor­ti­za­tion peri­ods to a max­i­mum of 35 years from 40 years.

    Mr. Alexan­der said if the gov­ern­ment went fur­ther and imposed rules that fur­ther lower amor­ti­za­tions, or worse, increased the min­i­mum down pay­ment, it could seri­ously impact the hous­ing market.

    A real estate source indi­cated that as recently as eight weeks ago he had heard Ottawa was con­sid­er­ing tight­en­ing mort­gage rules but the recent slide in the mar­ket has it rethink­ing that. The lat­est sta­tis­tics show aver­age prices are now falling, while sales are down about 20% from a year ago.

    Michael Pol­zler, exec­u­tive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada, said hous­ing activ­ity is slow­ing, but all indi­ca­tions are the mar­ket will be okay and prices rel­a­tively sta­ble under the present rules.

    I would be sur­prised [if there were fur­ther changes] because I think you want to keep the hous­ing mar­ket rolling,” said Mr. Polzler.

    The gov­ern­ment has to bal­ance the impact any changes in mort­gage rules might have on the over­all econ­omy. Accord­ing to July GDP data, the home resale mar­ket fell sig­nif­i­cantly for a third con­sec­u­tive month, and led to an 8% decrease in the out­put of real estate agents and bro­kers. The out­put of real estate sec­tor is now at about two-thirds of the level recorded at the begin­ning of 2010 when hous­ing was hot, Sta­tis­tics Canada data indicates.

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    Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion  -  416−388−1960

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