Tag Archives: residential building
Is Toronto’s condo market at a crossroads?
Mega-projects and towers flood city despite growing concerns
Russ Blinch – Reuters
Barry Fenton walked to the bank of floor-to-ceiling windows in his 30th-floor uptown Toronto penthouse suite and declared, “This is the best view of the city.”
To the south, a mass of steel-and-glass skyscrapers glinted in the bright autumn sun. Several cranes were in motion on unfinished buildings, a common sight in a city in the midst of a residential building boom.
“If you look around the core, every building you look at has a different look to it, a different ambience,” said the energetic co-founder of Lanterra Developments, one of the city’s most active builders. “That’s important.”
Mr. Fenton, 56, says he is confident the city’s condominium market will remain strong – despite warnings that it is all moving too far, too fast – and has an ambitious lineup for future development. And he is not alone in his optimism.
Toronto’s seams are bursting with new condo and hotel towers designed by star architects like Frank Gehry and built by famed developers like Donald Trump.
But Mr. Fenton and others face formidable obstacles: an infrastructure buckling under soaring density rates, the laws of supply and demand and preservationists who says too many new towers are destroying the city’s character.
Canada’s central bank drew a bead on the city of 2.6 million this month in its weighty “Financial System Review,” warning of “potential future supply imbalances” in the condo market.
The Bank of Canada noted that the number of unsold condominiums in pre-construction has doubled, to 14,000, over the past year.
Greater Toronto home sales have slowed after years of steady increases. Sales fell 16% in November from the same month a year ago, according to the Toronto Real East Board. So far, however, prices are flattening, not falling, as some analysts have predicted.
In defiance of warnings by the central bank and economists, two mega-projects were unveiled within days of each other in October – a three-tower condo complex to be designed by Gehry and a multi-tower office project that includes a massive casino.
RACE TO THE TOP
More skyscrapers – 147 of them – are being built in Toronto than anywhere in North America, according to Emporis, the German data provider. That is twice as many as in New York, a city with about three times the population.
Toronto is getting taller fast. Fifteen buildings that will be more than 150 meters high are under construction, more than anywhere in the western hemisphere.
The recently completed Trump International Hotel topped out at 277 meters, just shy of Toronto’s tallest skyscraper, the 72-story First Canadian Place, which is 298 meters. That height could be exceeded by a couple of major projects on the drawing boards, including the Mirvish project.
(The city’s tallest freestanding structure, however, is the CN Tower, which soars over Toronto at 553 meters.)
“Toronto is creating a very sustainable future by building condos downtown,” said Daniel Libeskind, the American architect, who was in Toronto in October for a ceremony for one of his latest projects, the 57-story L Tower, with its sweeping, curvaceous, design that rises above the city’s modernist Sony Center for Performing Arts.
“It fights urban sprawl and brings people into the heart of the city.”
While building in big American cities and in Western Europe cratered following the financial crisis four years ago, Toronto never stopped booming. Demand for residential space has been strong, and while the office market has also been healthy, most of the new developments have been for condo projects.
Lanterra’s Mr. Fenton said his company has built some 9,000 condominium units in Toronto over the past 10 years and now has “in the hopper” up to 6 million square feet of property in downtown Toronto that is being rezoned for new projects.
Lanterra gained prominence over the past five years for the development of Maple Leaf Square, which included two condo towers, a hotel and office space, near the city’s hockey shrine, Air Canada Center, on land that had sat vacant for years.
Now it is “one of the hottest places to be,” said Mr. Fenton.
“ONE TOWER LEADS TO ANOTHER”
Some worry that Toronto can’t handle much more development.
Despite decades of debate about transportation policy, Toronto has just two subway lines, a fleet of charming but lumbering streetcar lines and crumbling roadways.
Commuters in Toronto spend at least 80 minutes in traffic a day, on average – worse than what commuters face in London or Los Angeles – according to the Toronto Board of Trade.
Toronto’s City Planning Department did not respond to numerous requests for comment.
There is also concern about soaring neighborhood density rates. The city’s waterfront area has seen the most growth. Its population has soared 134% in a decade and is up 66% in the past five years, to 43,295, according to city data.
Toronto’s aging energy grid is strained. In July, downtown Toronto endured an eight-hour blackout after a transformer blew due to high demand. There was a similar outage last January.
THE MEGA-PROJECTS
Now two of the most ambitious projects the city has ever seen are being floated.
First out of the gate was theater impresario David Mirvish, who with his father, the late Ed Mirvish, helped create Toronto’s vibrant arts and theater scene.
In early October, Mirvish unveiled a plan for three condominium towers, with up to 85 floors each, that would be the city’s tallest buildings.
A podium at the buildings’ base would house two museums, including one for the Mirvish family’s contemporary art collection.
The Mirvish buildings would be designed by Gehry, the celebrated Canadian-born architect whose 76-story 8 Spruce Street residential tower was just completed in New York.
“These towers can become a symbol of what Toronto can be,” the 83-year-old Mr. Gehry said at project’s unveiling. “I am not building condominiums, I am building three sculptures for people to live in.”
Two weeks later, Oxford Properties Group, a Canadian developer with a $20-billion global real estate portfolio, announced a $3 billion makeover of the downtown convention center, just south of the Mirvish and Gehry project. It envisions a casino, two hotel towers and two office towers that would be among the tallest in the city.
Adam Vaughan, a city councilor whose district would encompass both projects, said a lot more planning is needed. He had kinder words for the Mirvish proposal – “it’s a transformative and astonishing proposal” – than for Oxford’s project, which he called “all out of proportion.”
“It’s time to have a really smart conversation about how we are building this neighborhood because there is a hell of lot of density arriving not just with this project but with all the projects that have been approved,” he said in an interview.
AT THE KIT KAT
Al Carbone, owner for the past three decades of the Kit Kat restaurant, doesn’t think people like Mr. Vaughan are listening to him, as the councilor and other politicians are not heeding the growing concerns about the rapid pace of development.
He said buildings are springing up too close to lot lines, creating jammed sidewalks and alleyways. And the sun does not shine on the streets like it once did.
He supports the Mirvish project, which would preserve his street, known as Restaurant Row. But he is battling a separate 47-story building that would go up steps away from his restaurant.
The plan, which still must be approved, would retain the historic facades of buildings on the street, which Mr. Carbone believes will destroy the character of the row.
“It’s a tough battle,” said Mr. Carbone, who launched the website SaveRestaurantrow.com to drum up support in opposition to the project. “You can’t have a condo on every corner.”
WHERE IS TORONTO HEADED?
Some believe Toronto is at a crossroads as developers, politicians and citizens debate the rapid changes the city’s urban landscape.
David Lieberman, an architect who also teaches at the University of Toronto’s architectural school, agrees the new developments have been good for the city, but he is not sure the city’s citizens are ready for it.
“We have such an excellent opportunity to get things right, but there is the Canadian conservatism,” Mr. Lieberman said, sipping coffee in his studio in an old downtown Toronto house. “Canadians in their city building are not risk takers.”
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416−388−1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
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Building a livable city
Ryan Starr – Toronto Star
For Brian Brown, 2012 started off with a smashing success.
The vice president of Lifetime Developments presided over the launch of INDX, a 54-storey tower on Temparance St. that became the top-selling condo project in the first quarter of 2012, with an eye-popping 642 units sold.
The impressive performance of INDX – which Lifetime is developing in partnership with CentreCourt Developments – had a lot to do with it being a unique offering for that neighbourhood. “It filled a void,” Brown says. “It’s the only pure residential building in an area of all office towers. So it really catered to the people who worked in the Financial District.”
Lifetime went on to sell out INDX – around 1,000 units – by December.
All in all a pretty good year for the Toronto builder, considering the difficulties the local development industry faced as the condo market came back down to earth.
“The biggest challenges came as a result of changes to government policy, such as the federal government’s decision to change the mortgage rules in July,” notes Bryan Tuckey, president of the Building, Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). “We saw consumer confidence diminish in the summer and fall months following that change.”
Comment: Yet someone else who sees and understands the new mortgage rules’ effect on the real estate industry.
And as it became clear that 2012 new-home sales weren’t keeping pace with a record 2011 – 31,766 homes were sold as of Nov. 30, compared with 44,393 by the same time in 2011, according to RealNet Canada – the ensuing “sky is falling” media coverage only made things worse for developers.
Comment: The media forgets that 2011 was a record year, far above any year before. The sales for 2012 will actually end up being 5–8% higher than the recent annual average. The sky is not quite falling… but you need data and context to know. And these are things the media love to leave out.
Normal is good
Although 2012 condo sales looked weaker on a year-over-year basis – with 18,103 condos sold in the first 11 months of 2012, versus 27,659 by that point in 2011 – RealNet says 2012 is actually on pace to be the fourth strongest year on record for condo sales.
Comment: Sound the alarm! Only the 4th best year ever! Run for the hills!
“The market had been so powerful and so strong for so long, that what we’re experiencing right now isn’t a slowdown,” Brown says. “What we’re seeing is a return to normalcy. And normalcy is a good thing. You couldn’t sustain what we had.”
Comment: Amen.
Despite all the negative sentiment swirling around at the end of 2012, there was certainly no evidence of a condo market in crisis when Tridel launched Ten York – a 65-storey glass tower at York and Harbour Sts. The builder sold 532 of the project’s available 600 units within the first two weeks of sales, making it the most successful launch of the fall.
Comment: Right when the experts said the Toronto condo market was collapsing – and they sold 89% of their condos in 2 weeks. A sure sign of the condo-pocalypse.
“There seems to be an affinity for tall buildings that are architecturally pleasing in triple A locations,” says Jim Ritchie, Tridel’s senior vice president of sales and marketing. “I think we were able to demonstrate that regardless of market sentiment, if a product comes to the marketplace that people like, they make the buying decision.”
Still buyers out there
Paul Golini echoes that sentiment. Empire Communities’ executive vice president notes that purchasers were attracted to his company’s latest project, Eau Du Soleil, largely because of its prime location on the Etobicoke waterfront.
By the end of 2012, Empire had sold more than 450 of the 750 available units at Eau Du Soleil. “It speaks to the fact that there are still buyers out there,” Golini says. “If you have the right product in a sought-after location at a competitive price, you’re going to be successful.”
While Eau Du Soleil sold well, Golini stresses that “we didn’t sell 450 units in a weekend.”
“This year was an adjustment year compared to 2011,” he says. “We’ve seen fewer launches and we’ve seen buyers take more time to make a decision. Success will not come in the short timeline, like the blow-them-out-the-door-type scenarios we’ve seen over the past few years.”
Which isn’t a bad thing, says Gary Switzer. Everybody in the industry should take a deep breath and notes that not having as many projects released last year over the previous years – which was an extraordinary number of projects for this city to be supporting – is a good thing, says the president of MOD Developments, whose Massey Tower at Yonge and Queen Sts. was another of 2012′s best-selling condos.
Comment: Something the media also seized upon, the fact that new condo sales were down by 38% – but they failed to mention the 30% fewer condos being launched and offered for sale.
MOD sold 486 of Massey’s 698 units in the first quarter of the year, before new mortgage rules took effect and consumer confidence took a dive. “Our timing was good,” Switzer says.
Comment: Consumer confidence is now up for the first time in the past 3 months.
The most successful projects of 2012 weren’t just downtown. Liberty Development’s Centro Square – a two-tower, 800-unit condo project at Highway 7 and Weston Rd. in Vaughan – proved to be the 905′s hottest launch of the year, with 70% of the 300 units released selling within the first two weeks.
Liberty senior vice president Marco Filice notes that sales were driven by strong demand from local purchasers in search of alternatives to pricey single-family homes or townhouses. “There’s a lack of highrise choices for them in the area,” he says. “When you come in with a choice that didn’t exist before, there’ll be a lot more attention.”
Outlook 2013
If 2012 represented a return to more normal conditions in the Toronto condo market, what do the developers see in their crystal balls for 2013?
“I think we’ll continue pretty much the way that we’ve been going,” says Switzer. “The good projects in the good locations will continue to sell. But I think that certain areas of the city are saturated, which is why some projects have not been selling as well.”
“Developers are going to start to look for opportunities in less obvious locations,” adds Brown.
Golini predicts fewer projects will come to market in 2013, “which is representative of the industry self-regulating,” he says. “And I see buyers still being cautious, but still buying because they need to live somewhere.”
Ritchie points to one thing the industry can look forward to in 2013. “It was a challenge this past year because all the reports were reflecting against what happened in 2011, which made 2012 numbers look pale by comparison,” he says. “Probably we won’t see that as much in 2013.”
Comment: 2013 will likely look a lot like 2012… or 2010, or 2009…
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416−388−1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
—————————————————————————————————–
Housing evolution driving average price appreciation in Canada’s major centres
Since 2000, the value of a Canadian home has doubled
Canoe
Record investment dollars poured into Canadian housing stock over past decade
Billions spent in new construction, renovation, and infill over the past decade have contributed to a serious upswing in the calibre of Canada’s housing stock, propping up residential average price in the country’s major centres, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.
Since 2000, the value of Canadian real estate has doubled, rising from $163,951 to $339,030 in 2010. Nowhere has the upswing been better captured than in both the value of residential building permits issued nationally between 2000 and 2010—at $340 billion—and the estimated $450 billion spent in renovation. The impact of these two forces alone has fuelled the Canadian residential real estate market – as well as the construction industry—for more than 10 years.
As a result, investment in Canada’s housing stock is at an all-time high in the 16 Canadian residential real estate markets examined in the RE/MAX Housing Evolution Report. Higher quality housing translated into extraordinary price appreciation across the country—with 62% (10 markets) experiencing increases in excess of 100% since 2000.
“While a number of external variables were also behind the exceptional gains, revitalization—amid an aging housing stock—and newer construction are largely underestimated factors supporting Canadian housing values. The trend is expected to continue for years to come as investment in residential real estate through renovation, infill, and redevelopment ramps up across the country. City planners, builders, developers, and homeowners have only just begun.
The report found that the unprecedented sum funneled into housing has effectively changed the landscape of Canada’s major centres. New home construction has advanced suburban sprawl, giving rise to new sought-after pockets in virtually every centre across the board.
Infill continues to redefine neighbourhoods, particularly in areas where the value of existing structures have not kept pace with escalating land values. The trend was evident in all centres, but had the greatest impact in large metropolitan cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. Bungalows on large lots are prime targets, making way for custom builds that transform working-class subdivisions of yesteryear into up-and-coming upper-end pockets. Infill is also maximizing land potential, often replacing one, two or several tired structures with a block of townhomes or mixed-use residential, even high-rise apartments.
Renovation has also had a tremendous impact on housing throughout the decade, so much so that it’s emerged as, arguably, Canada’s next national past time. Residential renovation spending has been gaining momentum year-over-year since the early part of the decade and now exceeds $60 billion annually.
The trend has not been limited to single-family homes—although that activity has been nothing short of remarkable. Canada’s cities have also mounted ambitious renewal of their own, particularly in the heart of most major centres—the urban core. Strategic smart growth plans are altering cityscapes, challenging our concepts and perceptions—including our purchasing patterns—and creating partnerships that are working to escalate our markets to world-class status. Non-residential construction, including infrastructure spending has had a positive secondary impact, in turn boosting spending on the residential side.
Toronto, for example, has become the largest condominium market in North America.
The past decade has also marked the rise of the condominium—moreover, its undeniable acceptance as an attractive option as opposed to a secondary compromise. Toronto, for example, has become the largest condominium market in North America. Yet, it isn’t just gaining traction in large centres like Toronto, Ottawa and Vancouver, but also in smaller cities such as Kelowna, London and Halifax—to name a few. Running the gamut from entry-level units to upscale, luxury suites, condominiums have gained widespread appeal with aging boomers, looking for lifestyle and low maintenance; young professionals, attracted to trendy locales; and first-time buyers, looking to get their foot in the door to homeownership.
Condominiums have changed the urban landscape, driving residential neighbourhoods up, instead of out, and bringing to market a bevy of new options from mixed-use residential, live-work studios, lofts, townhomes, and condo bungalows. Townhomes, in particular, have experienced a serious rise in popularity, bridging the gap for empty-nesters and retirees not yet ready for apartment-style living.
With construction of rental product few and far between in many Canadian centres, it’s no surprise that investors have also been particularly active in the condominium market, especially in college/university towns or where vacancy rates remain tight.
Redevelopment holds the greatest potential for cities on the cusp of exciting rejuvenation. While former brownfields can present challenges, many have opened up and revitalized entire areas. The Barrel Yards Development in Kitchener-Waterloo, for example, is expected to change stagnant industrial land into a bustling residential, commercial and retail hub. Past successful transformations include Garrison Woods in Calgary, the Hamilton Beaches in Hamilton and Bishop’s Landing in Halifax, with countless projects planned nationwide in the years to come. Conversions also continue to breathe new life into existing structures with good bones, while supporting the move to higher-density and the introduction of affordable options.
Greater sustainability overall, keeping the urban lifestyle attainable, livable and attractive at all price points, depends on redevelopment.
Lastly, population growth has been a key factor making housing evolution possible. Since 2000, Canada’s population has experienced double-digit growth of 11%. By 2031, over 42 million people are expected to call Canada home.
There’s no question that population growth will continue to support investment, propping revitalization and new construction in the years ahead, and by extension raising the bar and prices in real estate markets even further.
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
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