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Tag Archives: roller coaster

Eager buyers keep housing market hot

By Susan Pigg – Toronto Star MoneyVille

Finan­cial con­sul­tant Jose Jimenez has been on his own gut-wrenching roller coaster ride the last few weeks — and not because of the stock mar­ket fluc­tu­a­tions he mon­i­tors daily.

Jimenez, 35, has been try­ing to buy his first home.

In a way, I’ve been root­ing for the mar­kets to tank a bit and hop­ing that might encour­age other peo­ple not to buy right now, but that doesn’t seem to be the case,” says Jimenez, whose wife is expect­ing their sec­ond child.

In fact, whip­saw­ing mar­kets, fears of a double-dip reces­sion and global eco­nomic uncer­tainty seem to have made hous­ing look as good as gold.

Cana­dian home sales were up 12.3% last month from July, 2010 and are expected to grow slightly the rest of this year because of low inter­est rates, the Cana­dian Real Estate Asso­ci­a­tion said Tuesday.

We antic­i­pate that, going for­ward, the hous­ing mar­ket in Canada is going to be an oasis of sta­bil­ity com­pared to what is expected to be fur­ther volatil­ity in finan­cial mar­kets,” Gre­gory Klump, CREA’s chief econ­o­mist, said in a tele­phone interview.

Almost 285,000 hous­ing units have sold across Canada so far this year, just 1.6% below sales for the same period last year, and that’s expected to hit 450,800 by the end of 2011, accord­ing to CREA forecasts.

That’s despite dire pre­dic­tions ear­lier this year from some hous­ing ana­lysts that the real estate bub­ble is over­due to burst and send Toronto prices top­pling by as much as 25%.

Jimenez is keenly aware of all those num­bers but has a few more press­ing ones on his mind: His sec­ond child is due in Sep­tem­ber, his 2-year-old daugh­ter Sadie will start school in a cou­ple of years and Jimenez and his wife, Syd­ney Richard­son, just want a house they can make a home.

Richard­son is now wor­ried the cou­ple are “doomed” to have to raise their chil­dren in their two-bedroom Beach apart­ment after los­ing out Mon­day in a six-person bid­ding war — their sec­ond in just a few weeks — on a ren­o­vated three-bedroom Beach semi that was listed for $699,000.

The cou­ple offered $703,000, only to be out­done by a so-called “bully bid” — a down-to-the-wire offer almost $100,000 over ask­ing price.

Com­ment: Wrong. A bully offer is one that comes in before the offer date. An offer that comes in at the last minute is just rude – but effec­tive in that the other bid­ders are not expect­ing it. Nei­ther prac­tice is con­sid­ered to be good behaviour.

Last month they were braced to offer $70,000 over the $550,000 ask­ing price for a Rhyl Ave. house but found them­selves up against 13 other poten­tial buy­ers. The house sold for $120,000 over asking.

The cou­ple has talked about putting things on hold until the real estate mar­ket calms down, but their biggest fear is that day will never come.

Com­ment: Not any time soon. And even if it does, the house that was $699,000 today will be $819,000 by the time the bid­ding wars end. Does not mat­ter either way if you can­not afford it.

While Sonya Gulati, an econ­o­mist at TD Eco­nom­ics, antic­i­pates sales will be a lit­tle more sub­dued in the fall, she said first-time buy­ers and immi­grants are still being drawn into the mar­ket by inter­est rates that are expected to remain low until 2013.

On the one hand, they are incred­i­bly brave given all the eco­nomic uncer­tainty out there,” says Gulati, “but you need a place to live and a house is a long-term pur­chase so peo­ple seem to think it makes sense despite the mar­ket gyrations.”

Real estate agents say they are see­ing more and more home buy­ers, bank­ing on low inter­est rates, tak­ing on mort­gages of $300,000 to $500,000.

A vet­eran Beaches real estate agent blames lack of sup­ply for many of the bid­ding wars, but expects that could ease in the fall as more baby boomers look to cash out on their biggest asset at peak market.

Com­ment: But baby boomers are not cash­ing out, they are stay­ing in place and ren­o­vat­ing. That is part of the prob­lem, why list­ings are down and bid­ding wars are so common.

Domenic Pol­soni is so con­fi­dent real estate is a sure bet, he recently traded in his Mil­ton home, and gave up one car to help finance the move to a more expen­sive house in the Duf­ferin St. and Shep­pard Ave. area.

Peo­ple have been say­ing for years that the real estate bub­ble is going to burst, but I can’t imag­ine that will hap­pen. We sur­vived a major hit in 2008, peo­ple held their breath and then every­thing just seemed to march along.”

Jimenez fears get­ting caught up in the cur­rent real estate “panic.”

But this is the neigh­bour­hood where we want to raise our kids. Even if we were to take a short-term loss, I wouldn’t be too wor­ried about it in the long run.

I think we’d def­i­nitely get the value back from it, not just in the sale price, but in the life we will have had bring­ing up our fam­ily in that neighbourhood.”

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

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  • Don’t put all your investment eggs in the real estate basket

    Allan Small – Metro Canada

    The market volatility continues! The last hour of every trading day lately seems to provide investors with that roller coaster feeling. With each hour and day, the market seems to take on a new identity. Depending on who said what or what the rumour du jour seems to be, the stock market can move triple digits either way! What do investors think and how is the volatility driving their investment decisions?

    The longer this volatility lasts, the more investors seem to be shying away from investing. The stock market collapse during the recession of 2008 was much harsher than the most recent correction. However, investors are remembering their experiences from that year and are very reluctant to be investing their hard-earned dollars today. The fear for some individuals is that the North American markets could return to a recession once again, and that fear is driving investors’ decisions.

    In conversations with investors, I find more and more of them paying down their mortgage or other debts instead of investing, even though it is costing them very little interest to carry their debts. By paying down the mortgage rather than investing in the stock market, individuals are saying they cannot make more in equities than the interest rate they are borrowing at, and believe real estate is a better choice.

    In my opinion, investors’ decisions are being clouded by their negative experiences with volatility in their investments. While the market has definitely taken on a negative tone, investing in equities (which includes real estate) is still the best way to grow wealth over time.

    Individuals should have balance in their portfolios — real estate as part of a diversified portfolio makes sense, but investors shouldn’t be sinking all their disposal income into their mortgages, especially if their interest rate is very low.

    The real estate market in Toronto — and across Canada — is coming off its highs and slowing down, while the country’s stock market is coming off its lows and has a lot of room to grow. Why would an investor put all his or her money in real estate at this time?

    It makes more sense to use the low interest rate environment to create a balanced portfolio and invest in large Canadian or U.S. equities paying good dividends to compliment investments in homes. If real estate prices should take a turn for the worst, investors will have their investments to fall back on, or vice versa.

    When it comes to people’s homes they seem to forget the phrase, “never put all your eggs in one basket.”

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    Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information  -  416-388-1960

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  • Park the car permanently

    Get out of the traffic and into an easy-living, luxurious downtown condo

    Canwest News Service

    When the pace of life gets too hectic, some people head for the hills — but not Frank and Lori. This fortysomething couple will soon be shipping out of the picturesque village of Kleinburg and diving straight into the bustle and confusion of downtown Toronto.

    For Frank and Lori (who asked that their last name not be used), the move makes perfect sense. He is a partner at an insurance and estate practice near York University, while she teaches school in Mississauga. They bought their current home — a 2,500-square-foot bungalow across from the celebrated McMichael Art Gallery — about 16 years ago. They like it just fine but admit they are rarely there. Instead, they spend an excessive amount of time in their cars, either commuting to work or scurrying downtown to take in their favourite restaurants, films or operas.

    “Between business and pleasure, we drive into the city about three to five times a week,” Frank says. “We wanted a lifestyle change, and thought we should get out of our cars and into an area where we could walk to the action. So we started to search for something that could provide us our last move; a spot that would give us all the luxuries but in a setting that didn’t feel like a condo complex.”

    Last year, they finally found their dream condo — a spacious 1,600-sq.-ft. unit at 77 Charles, Aspen Ridge Homes’s 15-storey, 47-unit project currently under construction in Yorkville. So much about it is right, says Frank, from the quaintness of the building to the proximity to the University of Toronto, his alma mater, and the many interesting areas to walk their cocker spaniel, Dixie.

    There are an abundance of Franks and Loris waiting to put down elegant doormats at a luxury high-rise. Many have put last year’s monetary concerns behind them and are once again putting down hefty deposits in anticipation of their next big, luxurious move.

    OK, it hasn’t all been rosy. Last year was a roller coaster ride for real estate, the gloom coinciding with the economy’s demise. “It was definitely challenging — for everyone,” says Howard Tikka, director of marketing, Trump International Hotel & Tower. “We continue to make sales, but at a much slower pace than we have been accustomed to. While the Canadian economy has fared better than most, even those with the capital to make luxury purchases and investments in luxury real estate have scaled back a bit as well,” he says.

    “From November ’08 to a couple of weeks into February, we would have weeks where nobody — not even a single soul — would come into the sales office, so that was pretty scary,” recalls Sam Crignano, president of Cityzen Development Group. “You had traffic in the order of 45 to 70 [visitors] a week down to nothing. Some support staff had to get cut. … We were preparing for the worst, and thank God it didn’t happen.”

    The market eventually rebounded in spring 2009 and sales offices in the Greater Toronto Area started to see some action from both local and foreign buyers. Within weeks, sales were back on track and developers started feeling relief. In fact, last October Mr. Crignano began construction on three new luxury buildings that are selling fast: Pier 27, comprising 700 units in two towers at the foot of Yonge Street, priced up to $4.6-million; 58-floor L Tower a few blocks north, priced up to $2.6-million; and Oakville’s The Shores, 202 suites and nine town-homes priced to $2.6-million.

    “Once people took a look around and realized the Canadian economy and our housing climate were very different from what was happening in the States, when they saw our market was very stable and had solid underpinnings, they were able to get comfortable with making purchasing decisions again and looking at properties and what their options were,” says Mimi Ng, vice-president of marketing for Menkes Development, one of three partners building the Four Seasons Hotel and Private Residences in Yorkville.

    Boosting the buying frenzy are cranes and construction workers visibly busy behind the hoarding. Many luxury buildings and major hotel brands, such as Trump, Shangri-La and Four Seasons, used 2009 to tout their residences and have now broken ground, with The Ritz-Carlton already topped off and ready for its first occupants by summer.

    “A lot of people are scrambling to get new products on the shelf for the early part of 2010 while the world is cautiously optimistic, and people will continue to buy,” predicts Mark Cohen, senior vice-president at The Condo Store Marketing Systems. “As long as borrowing rates remain low, prices remain competitive and the general economy seems to be healthy from a rebound standpoint, people will continue to buy new homes and condos. There’s a guarded sense of optimism for a very good 2010.”

    One curiosity that has come to light since the recent boom is that local buyers are outpacing those from overseas. Christene De Gasparis, Aspen Ridge Homes’s marketing director, says many own properties in New York and Muskoka and are selling their large Toronto home for a smaller but equally luxurious pied-a-terre. Robbyn Hayden, sales manager for Living Shangri-La, is delighted by the local interest because “you don’t want to be in an investor-only building.”

    Despite the bounce-back, luxury high-rise players are hopeful about 2010. Ben Myers, executive vice-president of Urbanation, says few projects launched in 2009 due to the economy, leaving plenty of inventory left to sell, and he does not expect many new projects to come to the market until the current units are sold. Mr. Myers says the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST), which kicks in this July, will not make a big impact on luxury buyers “because they are already spending a lot of money in this market.”

    Julie Di Lorenzo, co-president of Diamante Development Corp. that is building The Florian, a 21-storey, 90-unit building in Upper Yorkville, says prices will certainly rise due to the dearth of units.

    “There aren’t a lot of luxury two,-three-and four-bedroom units out there, period,” she says. “They simply have not been built. Inventory of high-end condos is not available. Yet there are still many, many couples who will be downsizing. That demographic is just starting to influence luxury sales. The first Baby Boomers are just hitting 65 and thinking about their luxury home without stairs to climb and eavestroughs to clean. And now many young families have substantial recreation properties and they prefer [to have] the home in the country and the condo in the city for lifestyle.”

    Kind of like Frank and Lori. They may not own a cottage, but they want the lifestyle that goes with luxury high-rise living. Judging by the reactions of their family and long-time neighbours, they will have plenty of company at their new pad.

    “One word: envy,” laughs Frank as he describes the reaction when he started telling people of the downtown move. “We’ll have a lot more friends and family coming to visit. We’ll be the cool aunt and uncle — and we’ll get to enjoy all the fun and frolic of Yorkville.”

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    Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information  -  416-388-1960

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