Tag Archives: sales statistics
The fall condo market: Is perception reality?
George Carras – Yourhome.ca
With all the gloomy headlines this fall declaring a declining Toronto condo market, one has to wonder: What’s really been happening out there?
An insider’s look at the monthly sales activity yields insights that may challenge some commonly held perceptions.
Take new condo sales in October, for example. Were they way down or just average? It all depends on your perspective.
There were 1,914 new condos sold in October. While that’s 38% lower than the total sales in October of last year, remember that 2011 was a record year.
Over the long term, there has been an average of 1,821 new condos sold during October. So if you compare this October to the average October, new condo sales were actually 5% higher than the average.
This interpretation of market activity doesn’t lend itself to sensationalistic headlines quite like the perception that sales have dropped off by 38%.
For added perspective, consider sales statistics on a year-to-date basis.
Year-to-date, by October 31 there were 16,564 condos sold in the GTA. If you compare these sales figures to year-to-date 2011 — which was a record-breaking year — sales volumes in 2012 are down 30%.
But if you compare those sales statistics to average year-to-date new condo sales, 2012 comes in as the fourth best year on record.
The takeaway: If you compare results from this year to those of a record year — 2011 — you may tend to think the current condo market is heading on a downward trajectory.
But a well-informed and balanced interpretation of the 2012 condo market must take into account long-term average sales figures.
Let’s start by looking at average monthly sales.
September sales on average have been 23% higher than August sales. So if you compare September 2012 with August 2012, it was actually 43% higher than the average.
October sales are on average 12% higher than September sales. If you compare October 2012 with September 2012, it was in fact 79% higher than the average.
Comparing 2012 fall condo market sales to last year’s record results will inevitably lead you to a negative perception of where the market is headed. But if you compare this year’s fall market to the average results over the long term, it’s clear that the market is in fact gathering momentum at an above-average rate.
What about November? While it’s too early to tell officially, it appears the same trend is taking shape.
November 2011 was a very strong month, with 3,855 condo sales. Average sales for November over the long term are 1,690. So, while average sales in the month of November decline by 7% from October, based on confirmed sales at the time of writing, the probable sales outcome for November 2012 will likely be above average.
So was 2012 a good fall market or a good market fall? It all depends on the perspective you choose to take. But a wise market-watcher should always take into account the long-term view.
—————————————————————————————————–
Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
—————————————————————————————————–
Incoming search terms
Related posts:
- Perspective is the key to understanding the condo market Condos make up the highrise component of the new home...
- Toronto new condo market soars to new heights The new homes market in the GTA broke two records...
- Toronto condo market share hits all time-high in 2006 Source: RealNet Canada Inc. Toronto — Sales of new condos...
- ‘Condo-monium’ strikes the GTA George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc., was bang-on a...
- Toronto Condo Market Better Supplied The Toronto condo market has been the best-supplied market segment...
Housing market trend-line bodes well
Stephen Dupuis – Yourhome.ca
I knew we were having a pretty good year as far as total new home sales go but I was amazed when it was pointed out to me that we’re actually well on the way to the second best year ever. We’re going to get there in quite a different way than we did in 2002 when the all-time record was set, but hold that thought.
A few weeks ago, I got my monthly e-mail from Steven Hurst, the VP of Analytics for RealNet Canada Inc., containing the sales statistics for June and the totals for the first half of the year. In that e-mail, Hurst drew my attention to a number of highlights in the data, including the record-setting pace of sales so far this year.
Let’s look at the month of June first, starting with high-rise sales which were up a whopping 62% compared with June, 2010. As Hurst pointed out, it was the second best June ever and the fourth best month of all for high-rise sales. Add in a 40% spike in sales of low-rise homes in the suburbs and total new home sales for June were up 53%, year/year.
On a year-to-date basis, the low-rise market is flat-line with 2010 while the high-rise market is running 39% ahead of 2010. This is where Hurst noted that the past three months amounted to the second best second quarter (April-June) and the best ever first half (January-June) for high-rise sales.
As Hurst further revealed, the nearly 24,000 new homes and condos sold so far this year represents a record in the making.
The all-time record for new home sales was set in 2002 when a mind-boggling 55,000 new homes and condos were sold, well above the average annual demand since 2000 of around 40,000 units. We’re on pace to hit 48,000 units this year, but we’re going to get there in a dramatically different way than we did back in 2002.
Back then, exactly two-thirds of all new home sales were of the low-rise variety, basically single-detached, semi-detached and town-homes in the 905 Regions while just one-third of the market was high-rise condominium suites, largely in the City of Toronto.
This year, the market mix will be almost the reverse of 2002, with high-rise condominium suites commanding the overwhelming share of the market. So far this year, high-rise home sales have accounted for 61% of the market, peaking at 65% in June.
As for prices, the RealNet low-rise price index currently sits at $549,371, up 12.6% or $61,531 since last June, while the high-rise price index sits at $461,692, up 8.3% or $35,440 year/year.
What is driving the market and will it continue? Thankfully, we have a solid Canadian economy with the unemployment rate at its lowest since January, 2009. Low interest rates have obviously been a helpful factor, particularly for first-time buyers, and of course net migration of people to the GTA has been fuelling local market demand.
Can sales continue at the current pace? I know for sure that there’s a slew of new condo projects that have either just come to the market or will be coming very soon. New openings tend to drive sales so I expect my next few monthly e-mails from Mr. Hurst to contain some very healthy numbers. As for the Fall, time will tell, but the trend-line bodes well.
———————————————————————————————————————
Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
———————————————————————————————————————
Related posts:
- GTA new home sales a tale of two markets With the first half of 2010 in the books, the...
- Condo market surfing the heat wave, June sales up 62% The high-rise condo market in the Greater Toronto Area is...
- Housing starts dropoff reinforces cooling trend By John Partridge – Globe and Mail A little more steam...
- The GTA is now a four-season housing market I guess we can start talking about the fall rea...
- 905 area condo sales drive new home market up 105 per cent in August It was the hottest August ever recorded for new high...
‘Condo-monium’ strikes the GTA
Stephen Dupuis – Yourhome.ca
The musical references in my column last week seemed to strike a chord with readers as I continued to get comments about it throughout this week.
On that note, I’d like to put the song “Rise Up, Rise Up” by the Parachute Club in the back of your mind as you read on about the state of the highrise condo market in the GTA.
George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc., was bang-on a month ago when he said that the sales statistics for the GTA highrise housing market showed the month of September ending on a decidedly upbeat note, pointing to a very healthy final quarter of 2010.
Carras’ prescience was confirmed this week with the news that developers sold 3,159 new condo suites in the GTA in October.
That’s the best October ever for total sales and the second-best month all-time for highrise, with the record being set back in June 2007, when whole projects were selling out in a day.
And based on the street-talk in the industry, November is shaping-up to be a lot like October.
With an astonishing seven out of every 10 new homes sold in October being a highrise condominium suite, condo sales were up 27 per cent over October 2009, and are running 52.6 per cent ahead of the January-October 2009 period.
On a year-to-date basis, homebuyers have been eager to sign on the dotted line for more than 17,000 condo suites, representing more than half (56 per cent) of the 30,914 new homes sold so far this year.
Although the City of Toronto continues to account for the bulk of all condo sales (76 per cent in October), the biggest spikes in activity were found in the regions of Peel (Mississauga) and York (Markham and Vaughan), which were up 164 and 138 per cent respectively.
To borrow a great expression used in a Star headline earlier this year, “condomonium” is spreading to the suburbs, and with the Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Plan starting to take full effect, particularly the 40 per cent intensification rule, this trend will continue to grow.
The strength of the highrise condominium market is largely attributable to the $75,000 differential between the RealNet highrise price index, which sits at $424,327, and the lowrise price index, which hit $500,532 in October.
But I’d also have to say it has a lot to do with the healthy supply of well located, well designed buildings, combined with marketing which is second to none, as evidenced by the preponderance of local nominees for the U.S. home builder awards that are slated for January.
The high cost of lowrise living in the 905 areas of the GTA is a reflection of very low levels of inventory available, with the scarcity driving up prices above the half-million dollar threshold for the first-time.
As a result, lowrise new home sales were down 32 per cent compared with last October and are off 11.6 per cent on a year to date basis.
Looking at the new home market as a whole, with the highrise market rising up and the low-rise market riding low (think “Low Rider” by War), total new home sales are actually running 15.5 per cent of 2009 through the end of October, which still translates into a whole lot of pending building activity, economic investment, and most importantly, jobs.
———————————————————————————————————————
Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416−388−1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
———————————————————————————————————————
Related posts:
- Trends reveal we’re growing smartly When all was said and done, there were 36,803 new…
- Homebuyers rush to embrace GTA condo market Ten thousand is a lot. When you’re talking about condos,…
- GTA condo sales near record high There were 37,041 new and resale condominium units sold in…
- Toronto condo market hits down button So far, prices are holding firm: In the second quarter,…
- Positive signals coming from the Canadian condo market More than 22,000 condos have been sold in Toronto this…
