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Tag Archives: toronto condo sales

New website meant to shine light on underground segment of condo sales

Assign­ments’ seen as the Wild West of condo sales

Susan Pigg – Toronto Star

A vet­eran Toronto real estate agent is launch­ing a new MLS-like web­site aimed at open­ing up the under­ground condo assign­ment market.

Com­ment: Why call it “under­ground”? You are try­ing to make it sound illicit, which it is not. How is it any dif­fer­ent from the untracked world of pri­vate sales?

The new site, Assign​mentList​ingSer​vice​.com, is meant to pro­vide a cen­tral­ized list­ing of assign­ment units now largely being sold via word of mouth or through unreg­u­lated online sites such as Craigslist and Kijiji.

Com­ment: Blame the builders, do not make it sound like sell­ers or real estate agents are being sly or under­handed. Builders will not let buy­ers sell their units until the condo cor­po­ra­tion is reg­is­tered. Some times peo­ple need to sell, their life has changed. Heck, it could have been 4 years since they bought – maybe they are mar­ried with a child now and need the money to buy a house. This is not some dirty underworld.

For now, it’s largely restricted to real­tors for a fee but, over time, it’s hoped more pub­lic list­ings will be acces­si­ble to the pub­lic as resale prop­er­ties are now on Real​tor​.ca

What we’re try­ing to do is add some trans­parency to the process,” says Jamie John­ston of downtown’s ReMax Con­dos Plus Corp. “I don’t know how big this is going to be, but it’s impor­tant it be an orderly market.

Com­ment: Orderly? Or prof­itable? Note that it is only avail­able to real estate agents who pay for access. This is just one bro­ker­age try­ing to take advan­tage of a part of the mar­ket. Good for them, it is harder and harder to make money in real estate these days, so much com­pe­ti­tion. But let’s call it what it is, a way to make money, not some altru­is­tic endeav­our to help all those poor folks who need to buy or sell a condo assignment.

Right now it’s the Wild West.”

Assign­ments are typ­i­cally brand new con­dos or units still being built that buy­ers pur­chased years ear­lier in the pre­con­struc­tion phase. By “assign­ing” — or flip­ping — them to new buy­ers before the project is fully occu­pied and reg­is­tered, the ini­tial buyer is able to pocket con­sid­er­able prof­its and pass some or all of their clos­ing costs to the new buyer.

Com­ment: An assign­ment is the sale of a condo where the condo cor­po­ra­tion has not been reg­is­tered and the orig­i­nal buyer does not yet have title to the condo. They are essen­tially sell­ing the pur­chase con­tract, they are assign­ing the right to buy it. It does not mean the orig­i­nal buyer pock­ets a ton of prof­its, let’s be clear. And if you had bought any prop­erty 3–5 years ago and sold it now, you would make money.

The new buyer gets the ben­e­fit, in many cases, of being able to actu­ally walk through a never-lived-in unit rather than hav­ing to buy from blue­prints, although the uncom­pleted build­ing can still be, as John­ston puts it, “a war zone.”

Com­ment: A con­struc­tion zone, but call­ing it a war zone is a bit much.

The sec­ondary buyer can also snag a bit of a bar­gain: Assign­ments tend to sell below mar­ket value, or at least they did before condo prices started slip­ping last fall.

Com­ment: Not quite. The mar­ket value of a condo does tend to rise when the condo corp is reg­is­tered. Buy­ing before that means you are sim­ply buy­ing some­thing worth less, not at less than it is worth. But buy­ing a month before reg­is­tra­tion can cer­tainly see a nice short term price bump.

But these deals can also be com­plex and risky and the sec­tor largely unreg­u­lated. Many real­tors and lawyers avoid assign­ments because the con­tracts and fees are far more com­pli­cated than nor­mal resale deals.

Com­ment: Not so much risky, but cer­tainly a lit­tle more com­plex than a stan­dard deal. Hav­ing done a few, they are noth­ing to be afraid of. There is the same reg­u­la­tion involved as with any other sale. You would have 2 real estate agents involved, 2 lawyers, the buyer and the seller. The builder also has to give con­sent in writ­ing. All the same rules apply as to a resale trans­ac­tion. You would need a mort­gage approval, etc. Not sure why the writer is try­ing to make assign­ments sound so shady… blame the builders, allow peo­ple to put them on MLS, get it all out into the open.

It can also be more dif­fi­cult to deter­mine the real value of the units because any com­pa­ra­bles sold in the build­ing sel­dom show up on the resale Mul­ti­ple List­ing Service.

Com­ment: The real value is what some­one will pay for it. And you can sim­ply do the math. If the orig­i­nal price was $300,000 and prices have risen 5.46% every year since, then the unit is likely worth around $350,000 give or take. And if the new buyer agrees, then we know the value of the unit is now $350,000. Easy.

On top of that, most devel­op­ers’ con­tracts for­bid ini­tial pur­chasers from mar­ket­ing their units on MLS or other online ser­vices, for fear they will com­pete with any units the builder has yet to sell.

Com­ment: And that is why all of this hap­pens off MLS and out of sight. It is the builders who con­trol the situation.

Some devel­op­ers charge $5,000 to $7,000 for the right to assign units.

Com­ment: No, most charge $2,000.

Many allow it free but for­bid mar­ket­ing the units on MLS or other pub­lic online ser­vices. Buy­ers found vio­lat­ing that rule can have their units seized and lose their deposits, but devel­op­ers usu­ally back down as long as the unit is pulled off pub­lic sites, says real estate lawyer David Feld.

Com­ment: Try ALL of them for­bid the pub­lic offer­ing for sale of the units. Sure, you can sell it pri­vately to your aunt, but you can­not adver­tise them pub­licly for sale. Even on Kijiji or Craigslist is tech­ni­cally against their rules. And the penal­ties are bru­tal, the builder can take back the unit and keep your deposit, leav­ing the buyer with noth­ing. Gen­er­ally they only police MLS, but even putting it up on some small online clas­si­fied site could get the unit for­feited. Again, blame the builders.

John­ston antic­i­pates that up to 8,000 assign­ment units could come on the mar­ket annu­ally across the GTA over the next few years as devel­op­ers start to build the record 28,000 condo units sold in 2011. Mar­ket research firm Urba­na­tion believes the real num­ber will be sub­stan­tially lower than that as buy­ers opt to hold on and rent out units in the soft­en­ing market.

Com­ment: And I believe Urba­na­tion more. That and I just don’t see that many assign­ments out there. We had 28,000 com­ple­tions a cou­ple years back and there was no spike in assignments.

Johnston’s aim is to not only pro­vide a cen­tral­ized list­ing ser­vice for assign­ments, but also real estate and legal experts knowl­edge­able about the specifics of this small but impor­tant seg­ment of the grow­ing condo market.

Com­ment: Other than the aim of mak­ing money from the fees to access the service?

He believes that because Assign​mentList​ingSer​vice​.com is quite dif­fer­ent and sep­a­rate from the resale MLS com­puter list­ing ser­vice, it won’t vio­late most devel­op­ers’ rules.

Com­ment: Yes, it cer­tainly does. It is the pub­lic offer­ing for sale of units not yet reg­is­tered. Exactly against the rules writ­ten into all sales contracts.

Feld isn’t so sure, as some­one who’s seen the assign­ment mar­ket from both sides — he’s han­dled many such deals and is now qui­etly try­ing to find a buyer for a brand new town­house he bought in the pre­con­struc­tion phase.

They aren’t voodoo. You’re get­ting some­thing new with the added bonus of actu­ally see­ing it first,” says Feld. “But, ulti­mately, it’s the builder that is in control.”

—————————————————————————————————–
Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

—————————————————————————————————–

Five reasons not to buy a Toronto condo

Ben Rabidoux – The Globe and Mail

The Toronto condo market has been the centre of much discussion recently, with even the Bank of Canada giving it significant coverage in the December 2012 edition of the Financial Stability Review.

The potential risks facing this market segment have now crept to the forefront in discussions on the health of the overall Toronto real estate market – and for good reason. As the Bank of Canada noted, “Price corrections in particular segments of the housing market may put downward pressure on house prices more generally.” Because of this, the health of the condo market ought to be of interest to everyone in Toronto.

And on that front, it appears that 2013 may prove to be a pivotal year for the condo market as a number of factors seem to be lining up against it.

In particular, I see five trends worth watching in 2013:

1) Sales of new and existing condos are weakening

Sales of existing condo units, as measured on the Multiple Listing Service, have fallen in both the 905 and 416 regions. January sales in the 416 declined 6% from a year earlier and 9% in the 905 over that same time period.

Comment: Uh, nope. Condos in the 416 fell 4.5% and 6.4% in the 905.

The story is even worse in the new condo market, where sales of new units fell 53% in December compared to last year.

Comment: So what, pick any one month and you can make a point. The fact is, 2012 had the 4th highest new condo sales ever. One month does not a trend make.

Falling sales have been accompanied by rising inventory through the second half of 2012. Rising supply and falling demand are destabilizing factors in a real estate market.

Comment: New condos were 79% sold in 2012, just above the 10-year average of 78%. So no, unsold inventory is NOT rising, it actually dropped a little bit.

2) Inventory of unsold condos is now rising rapidly

January saw a significant rise in the MLS condo inventory across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) over the same month last year, with condos for sale rising 28% in the 416 – including a 42% jump in the downtown core – and 49% in the 905. Weakening sales and rising inventory is a clear indication that supply and demand is increasingly out of balance.

Comment: I cannot find stats that detailed, curious where these come from. But I find it very hard to believe when overall new listings FELL 18.5% in February from Feb 2012. And new condo inventory is also down…

3) There is an unprecedented supply of new condos in the pipeline, with a record number of units set to complete in 2013

Given the number of cranes that fill the Toronto skyline, it will likely come as no shock to Toronto residents that the number of condo units under construction is at an all-time high at just under 55,000 units.

Comment: Yet almost 80% of those units are already sold. Same as every year for the past 10 years. It is not like they are all going to suddenly come onto the market. And there are actually a little less than 61,000 units currently under construction.

Of these, an estimated 25,000 to 28,000 units are set to complete in 2013, representing an enormous amount of potential new inventory. If current trends persist, these units will be completing, and a portion of them hitting the market, at a time when existing inventory is already high and sales are relatively weak.

Comment: And we have had that many completed in a year before – nothing happened. So what? Potential is only that, potential. Sales are weak, yes, but only compared to record years. We are still way above the long term average.

4) Population growth is slowing

What’s ultimately needed to deal with what appears to be a potential condo oversupply problem is strong population growth in the GTA.

While we often hear that the GTA attracts some 100,000 new individuals annually, it appears that population growth is slowing. In fact, if we look at net population change in Ontario, we find that our population as a province is growing at the slowest pace since 2007.

Comment: Provincial data does not matter when talking about only one city. But if population growth slows in Toronto, then there will be fewer homes required. As sales slow, developers will release fewer projects. This will be slow and gradual. It is not like a wall is going up tomorrow and immigration will stop cold one day.

In a recent report, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation discussed the effect of slowing population growth on real estate in Toronto:

“At least part of the reduction in ownership demand (in Toronto) over the second half of 2012 can be linked to weaker migratory flows into the region. Net migration for Ontario over the past year ending in September 2012 declined by more than 20% as a decreased number of people from other countries came to live in the province and an increased number of Ontarians migrated out. This suggests that the GTA (which doesn’t have updated data for 2012 but represents roughly 70% of the province’s migration flows), saw the number of net new people decline to below 60,000 for the first time since the late 1990s.”

Population trends are notoriously difficult to predict, but the fact that Toronto’s population growth is slowing dramatically as we head into 2013 is one more reason to be concerned.

Comment: And yet you use it to make predictions.

5) Condo prices are now falling

Finally, and perhaps as a logical result of the weakness in the condo market in late 2012, prices are beginning to fall. The year-over-year change in the median resale price of condos and single-family homes in the GTA, as reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board. Put simply, when the trend is below zero%, it means prices are falling compared to the previous year.

Comment: And yet condo prices have risen every other year, always going up. One year is only one year. You are telling people to panic and sell, or not buy, because of 10% of a decade-long trend? That does not sound like practical financial advice.

Resale prices for condos are now slightly below what they were a year ago. Barring a major change in current sales and inventory trends, it doesn’t appear that prices will rebound soon. But the recent downward motion is a major change from the past 10 years – and you want to act immediately on that, rather than wait it out to see what happens. All prices rise in time, given enough time. If you buy a condo now – to live in, as a home as opposed to an investment – you are more than likely going to see a higher price 5 years from you. Simple as that.

For prospective first-time buyers looking at jumping into the condo market, it certainly looks like 2013 will be a great year to sit on the sidelines and watch how this plays out. For condo owners looking to sell, be aware of the current state of the market and set your price and expectations accordingly.

—————————————————————————————————–
Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

—————————————————————————————————–


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  • Record high level of condominum starts in 2012

    Toronto devel­op­ers com­mence build­ing 24,388 units in 104 projects

    Urba­na­tion Inc., the lead­ing source of infor­ma­tion and analy­sis on the Toronto con­do­minium mar­ket since 1981, has released its Q4-2012 mar­ket overview.

    In the Toronto Cen­sus Met­ro­pol­i­tan Area (CMA) there were 3,841 new con­do­minium apart­ment sales in Q4-2012, an increase of 16% over the third quar­ter. Over­all, 17,997 new units sold in 2012, between the five-year CMA aver­age of 20,119 annual sales (2007 to 2011) and the ten-year aver­age of 17,139 annual sales (2002 to 2011), but down from the record break­ing pace set in 2011.

    The Toronto CMA con­do­minium mar­ket set sev­eral records in 2012 includ­ing: con­struc­tion starts (24,388), active devel­op­ments (355), total active units (89,251), and total units under con­struc­tion (56,866).

    The aver­age sold index price in the Toronto CMA was $536 psf in Q4-2012 (up 5.2% annu­ally), while unsold suites were being offered at $568 psf on aver­age in the fourth quarter.

    Over­all the active Toronto CMA new con­do­minium mar­ket is 79% sold over­all, down from 80% sold in Q3-2012 and 82% sold in Q4-2011, but above the ten-year aver­age of 78%.

    Despite con­cerns over the level of unsold sup­ply in the new con­do­minium mar­ket, the ratio of sold to unsold units has con­sis­tently been above the long-run aver­age in recent years” says Ben Myers, Urba­na­tion Exec­u­tive Vice Pres­i­dent. “There remains con­fu­sion over unsold sup­ply and stand­ing inven­tory, to clar­ify, at the end of Q4-2012 there were just 613 com­pleted and unsold new con­do­minium apart­ment suites in the Toronto CMA – some would be rented out by the devel­oper, some used for con­struc­tion offices, and oth­ers used as model suites for sub­se­quent phases, effec­tively low­er­ing this stand­ing inven­tory fig­ure even farther”.

    Over­build­ing was a term cited quite often in rela­tion to the Toronto con­do­minium mar­ket in the sec­ond half of 2012, how­ever, a sur­vey of devel­op­ers, lenders and bro­kers con­ducted by Urba­na­tion in Decem­ber indi­cated that just 11% of respon­dents indi­cated that over sup­ply in the new con­do­minium mar­ket was their top con­cern going into 2013.

    The resale con­do­minium mar­ket suf­fered from a lack of sup­ply in Q4-2012, as just 3.2% of the 227,700 units (1,285 build­ings) tracked by Urba­na­tion were listed for sale in the fourth quar­ter, the low­est quar­terly level in over 10 years. Resale activ­ity declined 14% quar­terly in the Toronto CMA to 2,941 trans­ac­tions. Despite the decline in resale units traded, the Sales-to-Listings ratio increased quar­terly to 40.2%, indica­tive of rel­a­tively bal­anced mar­ket conditions.

    Many investors chose to hold and rent their units in 2012 rather than sell them into uncer­tain mar­ket con­di­tions” adds Myers. “This is con­trary to the the­ory that con­do­minium unit hold­ers will panic and sell their suites at sig­nif­i­cant dis­counts dur­ing a soft­en­ing mar­ket“.

    Of the 2,941 resale con­do­minium apart­ment trans­ac­tions in Q4-2012, just 0.9% of these suites were sold for less than 90% of the list price. These 27 units sold at an aver­age price of $641,000 ($282,000 over the aver­age Q4-2012 resale price of $359,000), indi­cat­ing that most of these lux­ury suites were owned by indi­vid­u­als with unre­al­is­tic value expec­ta­tions, not investors look­ing to ‘cut their losses’.

    Myers adds “We do not sub­scribe to the the­ory that a major cor­rec­tion in resale con­do­minium pric­ing is forth­com­ing, the lack of reces­sion­ary con­di­tions, the nearly non-existent fore­clo­sure mar­ket, and the unwill­ing­ness of con­do­minium sell­ers to accept low-ball offers will keep prices from falling to any sig­nif­i­cant extent in 2013.

    Over­all, 15,292 resale con­do­minium apart­ments traded in 2012, down from the five-year aver­age of 15,609, but above the ten-year aver­age of 13,486.

    Urba­na­tion is fore­cast­ing 14,500 resale con­do­minium trans­ac­tions in 2013 and 17,000 new con­do­minium sales in the Toronto CMA. 53% of respon­dents to Urbanation’s indus­try ques­tion­naire expected between 17,500 to 20,000 new con­do­minium sales in 2013, while 42% expected sales between 14,000 and 17,500.

    —————————————————————————————————–
    Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

    Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
    They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
    who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

    —————————————————————————————————–


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