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Tag Archives: toronto region

Toronto house sales hold up as spring season begins, but condos sink

Toronto hous­ing mar­ket weath­ers storm

Michael Babad – Globe and Mail

Toronto house sales are far­ing rel­a­tively well as the spring mar­ket begins in earnest, though the condo mar­ket is still hurting.

Com­ment: The condo mar­ket saw 4.3% fewer sales with 5.9% higher prices. Yeah, wow, that sure is a hurt­ing market…

Home sales in the Toronto area, a flash point for con­cerns over Canada’s res­i­den­tial real estate mar­ket, dipped by less than 1% in the first two weeks of April from a year ear­lier, to 4,260, though the Toronto Real Estate Board noted there was one extra sell­ing day this year. And that was despite the lousy weather.

The aver­age price rose 4.3% to $527,397, the group said.

The mar­ket is being buoyed by sin­gle homes out­side the city proper.

April sales to date, which were dri­ven by strong growth in single-detached home sales in the regions sur­round­ing Toronto, rep­re­sent a pos­i­tive start to the spring mar­ket,” said the group’s pres­i­dent, Ann Hannah.

Com­ment: Much of the detached home sales have moved to the 905 because the prices are almost half of those in the 416, plus there are sim­ply very few list­ings in Toronto proper.

Because mar­ket con­di­tions have remained tight, we con­tinue to see aver­age price growth well above the rate of infla­tion for many home types.”

Com­ment: And it is the same old refrain we have seen for years, demand just exceeds supply.

Over all in the Toronto region, sales of detached homes rose 3.9%, but that was dri­ven by a 6.8% increase in the so-called 905 area, the com­mu­ni­ties that sur­round the city denoted by their area codes. In Toronto proper, those sales fell 3.4%.

The condo mar­ket remained a trou­ble spot, in both areas, with sales down 5.8%, led by the out­ly­ing region.

Com­ment: It should be noted that 416 con­dos only fell 4.3%, it was 905 con­dos that dragged the aver­age down.

In the first quar­ter, condo sales were down by some 17% in the Toronto area, and prices down 0.5%, while rentals were up by almost 13%.

Com­ment: And what an amaz­ing rebound we are see­ing in April. Condo sales rose almost 13% from –17% t –4.3% and prices jump 6.4% from –0.5% to +5.9%. I think we can safely say that the dan­ger has passed and we are see­ing a resur­gence of the condo mar­ket. New projects are down, thus low­er­ing sup­ply. So demand increases pres­sure on exist­ing stock and you get pos­i­tive results.

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

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  • Toronto’s south core – wrong side of the tracks no longer

    Shelley White – The Globe and Mail

    There was a time when no one wanted to set up their offices “south of the tracks” in Toronto.

    The Gardiner Expressway and the railway lines essentially cut off the land below Front Street, making it undesirable for major corporations looking for a home base. But with downtown office vacancy tight, more tenants are looking to plant their flag in the “south core.”

    As the condo boom amps up infrastructure in the area and tenants seek spaces with lower taxes and leading-edge amenities, the south core has turned into a hotbed of office development all the way to the Lake Ontario waterfront.

    “That traditional stigma is gone,” said John Arnoldi, executive managing director at Colliers International, Toronto region. “Not a lot of people would have predicted you’d get major accounting firms [like PricewaterhouseCoopers] south of the financial core, and people like Telus that have brought a significant number of employees from the suburbs to be in that area.

    “Look at [Royal Bank of Canada] kicking off the new RBC WaterPark tower. That’s another example of a major financial institution that’s gone south of the tracks. So I think it’s wide open.”

    Since 2006, Toronto has been in the midst of an office building boom and much of it is happening in the south core, said Julian Brandon, a commercial real estate consultant with DTZ Barnicke Ltd.

    The current development cycle is also dominated by south core towers, including RBC WaterPark Place, at 88 Queens Quay, the new site of its personal and commercial banking group, and 120 Bremner Blvd. (with tenants Marsh Canada Ltd. and SNC Lavalin), as well as proposed/pre-leasing sites such as 1 York St., 265 Queens Quay and 16 York St. (with rumours that companies such as Apple Canada and Cisco are looking for south-core space).

    “Out of the last 10 developments, seven have been south core, south of Union Station,” Mr. Brandon said. “And half of the next phase of planned ones are also in that area. So that’s basically the story in the new development era.”

    Stuart Barron, national director of research for Cushman & Wakefield, adds, “There’s about four million square feet on the rise. The only new building rising in the [traditional] core is the Bay-Adelaide east tower … close to 65% [of total downtown office developments] are rising south of Front Street.”

    Part of the reason there’s been such interest in the south core is that downtown vacancy rates are a low 5%, and it’s where major landowners have space available, Mr. Arnoldi said. “It’s the ‘if you build it, they will come’ mentality.”

    The condo boom has also brought benefits to area, Mr. Arnoldi said, resulting in the creation of a great deal of commercial development such as retail, hotels and restaurants. “It has made [the south core] a node that office development can nicely blend into.”

    As well, south-core projects are attractive to those who want to be a lead tenant in a brand-new building and thereby upgrade their image, Mr. Brandon said. “Along with the signage and the stakeholder interest in the new building, you can drive things like green LEED incentives, roof-top decks, bike storage.”

    Many of the new buildings perform better when it comes to technology, featuring “any place data,” faster Internet performance and high-speed elevator systems. In addition to better livability, improved environmental systems also create cost savings, Mr. Brandon said.

    “The operating charges are generally lower than older-stock buildings,” he says. “There’s no conclusion yet on by how much, but people are estimating by between 6 and 10%, and when you’re operating in the millions and millions of dollars on a building, that’s substantial.”

    In addition, Mr. Arnoli adds that the tax base is lower in the south core than the traditional financial core. “So that’s attractive to people as well, a new building at a lower price than the traditional bank towers.”

    Greg Grice, senior vice-president of enterprise services and chief procurement officer for RBC, said the expansion to the new WaterPark building reflects the company’s growth as well as the City of Toronto’s development in that area.

    “It is also important to us that we reduce both our real estate and environmental footprints, as well as operating costs, while equipping our employees with innovative new tools and technologies that help them provide the best service to our clients. RBC WaterPark Place fits all these criteria,” he said.

    Another south core benefit is the proximity to Union Station. “With the revitalization of Union Station that’s going on, it’s absolutely the biggest transit hub in the GTA and people flock to that,” Mr. Arnoldi said.

    Gregg Lintern, director of community planning for Toronto and East York District, says the city’s official plan clearly envisions the extension of the financial district south of the rail corridor, “with the key factor being walking distance to Union Station.”

    “This is the most significant regional transportation hub and should be used to draw labour from long distances for businesses that want to locate in downtown Toronto,” Mr. Lintern said.

    The RBC WaterPark tower, the third phase in the Oxford Properties development, will have an added transportation bonus for employees – an elevated, enclosed pedestrian bridge that will link the building directly to the Air Canada Centre and Union Station, a feature that RBC says will be the first of its kind in Toronto.

    “It’s that type of stuff that is really going to pull the south core into more proximity,” Mr. Arnoldi said.

    When it comes to development along the waterfront, Mr. Brandon said landowners are “champing at the bit” to develop several sites that are in the pre-leasing stage and will do so once they secure lead tenants. But Mr. Arnoldi said he thinks the lack of convenient transit for employees may impact development that is too far east and west from Union Station.

    “There is a transit line they’re talking about, the LRT, that will help, and in the interim there’s talk if some new buildings get built, of having shuttles that will shuttle people back and forth from Union Station, that kind of thing,” he said. “But those sites are not as convenient and I think there are some other sites on York Street and the foot of Bay that will be built sooner than things that are on the periphery.

    “It’s mostly eastward where the development is going to happen – that’s where the lands are available and the question is, how far are people willing to go east of Yonge Street and still find it convenient?” Mr. Arnoldi said. “Or do they say, ‘You know what, if we’re going to be this far away from Union Station and the traditional core, why don’t we go to the suburbs and save ourselves even more money on the taxes?’”

    With this south core development boom in full swing, the question becomes, how long can it continue, particularly in uncertain economic times? Mr. Barron says he’s “shocked” that the new development cycle is as robust as it is, given the current uncertainty in the global economy.

    “The risk is that, is the economy of tomorrow going to be quite as supercharged as the economy of yesterday from an office demand perspective?” Mr. Barron asked. “And there are some factors which are still in place which would support that and some which would argue against it.”

    One argument for a continued office space boom? “We are still in a low-interest environment and that helps to fuel demand and reduce costs on companies’ income statements,” Mr. Barron said. And part of our hot downtown office market is foreign companies recognizing that Toronto is a good place to do business, he says.

    “Companies are saying, ‘Canada is a safe environment, a good bet, their companies remain profitable, Toronto is a vibrant market. All this condominium development, we can tap into that educated work force,’” Mr. Barron said. “Also, [there's an] energy level and vibrancy related to productivity that you can’t parallel in the suburban market.”

    —————————————————————————————————–
    Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960

    Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
    They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
    who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

    —————————————————————————————————–


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  • Toronto Economic Outlook

    Troy Media

    The Toronto Economic Region covers Durham, York, Peel and Halton Regional Municipalities as well as the City of Toronto and is home to over six million residents. The region’s real GDP is estimated at $272 billion in 2011, accounting for half of Ontario’s economic output and one-fifth of Canada’s. The economy is highly diversified including services, banking, public administration, tourism, manufacturing and high tech.

    This region’s economic outlook through 2014 includes slower population growth as relatively high unemployment slows net in-migration. Major investments in power and transportation projects drive construction employment while housing starts slow. Overall job growth is moderate.

    Housing sales level off after this year’s contraction although average prices keep rising.

    Private sector business investment in plant and equipment expands while public sector investment declines due to fiscal tightening. Major projects under construction in the region through 2014 include the $1.1 billion Highway 407 extension in west Durham on which construction runs from 2012 to 2015. Ontario Power has begun refurbishing the Darlington nuclear power plant in Clarington at a cost of almost $10 billion over 15 years. Site preparation has begun on expanding the Darlington nuclear power plant. If fully approved, the expansion is projected to cost $23 billion over 13 years. Metrolinx is projected to begin $12.8 billion in transit development projects over 10 years, beginning in 2014.

    Population growth in the Toronto region slowed to 1.6% in 2011 as net in-migration declined, due to relatively high unemployment. Net immigration is forecast to decline from 61,839 persons in 2011 to 39,146 persons in 2014. Net out-migration to other parts of Ontario and the rest of Canada is forecast to rise by several thousand persons per year through 2014. With net natural increase (births minus deaths) holding fairly steady, regional population growth is forecast at 1.4% in 2012, 1.3% in 2013 and 1.2% in 2014. Despite this growth deceleration, Toronto’s population will remain among the fastest growing in Canada.

    Employment in the region has trended up since the 2009 recession although the growth rate has slowed over the past year. Employment growth is forecast at 0.8% in 2012, following a 1.4% increase in 2011. In the first nine months of 2012, industries with the largest year-over-year job gains include “other” services, accommodation-food services and education services. “Other” services include repair, maintenance, personal and laundry services. Job growth in these industries has been offset by declines in information/recreation services, transportation-warehousing services, manufacturing and finance-insurance-real estate services.

    Investment in major power and transportation projects will lead to job growth through 2014. Industries forecast to drive employment gains include construction, accommodation-food services and other services. Job growth in these industries will be partly offset by declines in finance-insurance-real estate services and public administration. Overall employment is forecast to increase 1.3% in 2013 and 1.7% in 2014, on par with long-term historical average growth of 1.6% per year.

    Forecast labour force growth will outpace employment growth, lowering the region’s unemployment rate to 7.9% in 2014 from 8.4% in 2011.

    Housing market activity in the Toronto region is forecast to remain fairly active through 2014, although growth decelerates from the past two years. Tighter financing terms for low-equity buyers leads to a 6% decline in MLS housing unit sales in 2012. Unit sales are forecast to remain near the 2012 level through 2014, as population growth continues to drive demand for housing. Forecast unit sales drive the average MLS house sale price up 6% this year, 2% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. Residential building permits will jump 25% in 2012 before returning to more normal levels through 2014.

    Private sector business investment grows robustly in the short term due to reductions during the recession and major investments in electric power facilities. Private sector non-residential building permits are forecast to rise 12% in 2012, 8% in 2013 and 11% in 2014. Public sector investment contracts in the short term, reversing the post-recession fiscal stimulus. Public sector non-residential building permits are forecast to fall 32% in 2012, 17% in 2013 and 6% in 2014.

    —————————————————————————————————–
    Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960

    Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
    They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
    who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

    —————————————————————————————————–


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