Tag Archives: trends report
Scotiabank Year-end Review and Outlook for Global Real Estate
According to a recently released Global Real Estate Trends report from Scotia Economics, low interest rates and slowly improving economic conditions contributed to a slight global residential property market recovery.
From the 12 advanced nations polled, the estimated average inflation-adjusted home prices rose this year in six (Australia, Canada, France, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.), were stable in two (Germany and the United States) and dropped in four (Ireland, Italy, Japan and Spain). This is compared with 2009, when eight of the 12 markets suffered price declines.
“The rebound lost some steam in the latter half of the year, mirroring the general loss of momentum in global growth, though regional performances remain highly varied,” said Adrienne Warren, Senior Economist, Scotia Economics. “Despite still attractive borrowing costs, the expiry of purchase incentives in many markets, the relatively slow pace of job creation and mounting concerns over the financial strains facing debt-heavy developed nations are weighing on confidence. These factors will likely keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines in 2011.”
Leading the pack for 2010 is the Australian housing market. This is attributed to things like low unemployment; similarly, lower housing supply is driving prices up. Other factors like consecutive interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the end of enhanced First Home Owners Grant in January 2010, have brought some stability to a hot market. Average inflation-adjusted home prices in the third quarter of 2010 were up 9.4 % year over year compared with a 15.9 % increase in Q1.
“We anticipate a further slowing in sales and price appreciation in 2011,” added Ms. Warren. “While Australia’s close trade ties with Asia and resource wealth will continue to underpin a solid pace of domestic activity, higher interest rates will worsen already strained affordability. The RBA has recently taken pause, but we expect the resumption of a gradual policy tightening path in 2011, with short-term rates raising an additional 75 basis points by year-end.”
Back at home in Canada, markets performed well, but were volatile. Contributing factors include an extraordinarily active winter and spring, anticipation of a hike in interest rates only partially materialized, and BC and Ontario’s introduction of the HST – all made the summer markets weaker than usual. Things rebounded in the fall, to bring back stability to the markets.
“We are neither overtly optimistic nor pessimistic regarding the outlook for 2011,” stated Ms. Warren. “On the one hand, we expect interest rates to remain at historically low levels, with the Bank of Canada deferring any further rate hikes to late 2011 given an uncertain global economic outlook and subdued inflation, and longer-term borrowing costs drifting up only modestly. This is an extremely powerful inducement for both first-time and move-up buyers and should maintain a decent level of sales.”
There is expectation that demand will be affected by moderate employment and income growth. Public sector hiring was responsible for a third of the net new jobs created in Canada over the past year – which is likely a one-time thing.
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information – 416-388-1960
Laurin & Natalie Jeffrey are Toronto Realtors with Century 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these articles, they just reproduce them here for people
who are interested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.
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Real estate picture improving
CBC News
Canada’s real estate market is showing signs of improvement after slowing noticeably over the summer months — but is a long way from the highs of late 2009, according to Re/Max.
According to Tuesday’s market trends report from Re/Max, sales activity so far this year has eclipsed last year’s level in 11 of the country’s 19 largest real estate markets.
“The outlook for the residential housing market has vastly improved over the past three months. Yet, markets are expected to record softer sales activity in the final quarter of the year, in comparison to the same period in 2009,” says the report from Re/Max, the country’s largest real estate firm.
On average, prices have been moving lower since peaking earlier in the spring, but over a longer time frame, prices are up across the board, with five areas reporting double-digit gains since the start of the year.
By far the strongest area of activity was sales of luxury homes, Re/Max said.
All markets reported a surge of 20 per cent or more in upper-end home sales. Sixty-eight per cent of markets saw upscale home sales climb in excess of 40 per cent, while 21 per cent boasted triple-digit gains.
“If anything demonstrates the underlying health of the national housing picture, it’s the surge in sales of luxury properties this year,” said Michael Polzler, Re/Max’s executive vice-president for Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
“We know from experience that this segment of the market is usually the first to show pressure cracks when a market is softening [and] that has certainly not been the case this year, even during the summer slowdown.”
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information - 416−388−1960
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Remax warns not enough homes for buyers
Julie Fortier, Financial Post
With new mortgage rules, a new harmonized sales tax in some provinces and the possibility of higher interest rates all set to kick in this summer, Canadian home buyers are on a tear and it is only going to get busier leading up to this summer, according to the Re/Max Market Trends Report 2010 released Wednesday.
The report, which examined real estate trends in 16 markets across the country, found that unusually strong activity in January — traditionally one of the quietest months of the year — has led to a sharp decline in active listings in 81% of markets surveyed. Too many buyers and not enough homes will probably be the main problem in coming months, according to the report.
Markets experiencing the tightest inventory levels include Toronto (-41 per cent), Kitchener-Waterloo (-33 per cent), Ottawa (-30 per cent), Victoria (-30 per cent) and Greater Vancouver (-27 per cent), which also had some of the highest year-over-year sales gains.
The highest year-over-year sales gains were reported in Greater Vancouver (152 per cent), Kelowna (121 per cent), Greater Toronto (87 per cent), Victoria (69 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (58 per cent), London-St. Thomas (55 per cent) and Calgary (47 per cent), the report said.
Western Canada dominated the list of centres with the greatest increases in price, with Victoria home prices jumping 25.5 per cent in January compared with the same month a year before. Kelowna jumped 22 per cent and Greater Vancouver rose 19.5 per cent. St. John’s saw an increase of 23 per cent and Toronto rose 19 per cent.
“While home ownership is still within reach in many major centres, levels are slipping. There is a growing sense, on both sides of the fence, that the time to act is now,” Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president at Re/Max of Western Canada said in a release.
With the Harmonized Sales Tax, which will add more tax to home buying in two of the biggest and most squeezed markets – Ontario and B.C. – set to start July 1, and the Bank of Canada’s record-low interest rates expected to rise around the same time, that pace of growth could slow dramatically in the second half of 2010. Last week, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty also said starting April 19 all borrowers must meet standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if the buyer wants a variable rate mortgage, among other mortgage rule changes.
“There have never been so many motivating factors in play at once,” Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada said in a release. “We’re in for a heated spring market that will, in all probability, spill over into the summer months, as the window of opportunity draws to a close. The supply of homes listed for sale has been drastically reduced, housing values are once again on the upswing, and banks and governments are moving in unison toward stricter lending policies.”
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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information - 416-388-1960
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