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Resale housing market on solid ground in November

Canada News Wire

National resale hous­ing activ­ity con­tin­ues its return to nor­mal lev­els, hav­ing risen in Novem­ber 2010 for the fourth con­sec­u­tive month, accord­ing to sta­tis­tics released today by The Cana­dian Real Estate Asso­ci­a­tion (CREA).

Sea­son­ally adjusted national home sales activ­ity via the Mul­ti­ple List­ing Ser­vice® (MLS®) Sys­tems of Cana­dian real estate Boards climbed 4.8% in Novem­ber 2010. Although this is well short of record level activ­ity for the month of Novem­ber posted a year ago, sea­son­ally adjusted sales now stand 19.5% above lev­els recorded in July 2010, when it reached this year’s low point.

Sales activ­ity rose in many local mar­kets but eased in oth­ers,” said Georges Pahud, CREA Pres­i­dent. “Home buy­ers and sell­ers need to rec­og­nize that local and national mar­ket trends may dif­fer, and for that rea­son, they would do well to con­sult their local REALTOR® in order to under­stand how the hous­ing mar­ket is shap­ing up in their market.”

Sea­son­ally adjusted activ­ity was up from Octo­ber lev­els in two-thirds of all local mar­kets, includ­ing eight of Canada’s ten most active mar­kets. Month-over-month increases were reported in Cal­gary (+2.6%), Edmon­ton (+6.9%), Fraser Val­ley (+10.5%), Lon­don & St. Thomas (+6.5%), Mon­treal (+8.2%), Ottawa (+4.2%), Toronto (+6.0%), and Greater Van­cou­ver (+11.3%). These mar­kets accounted for more than half of national activ­ity in November.

Actual (not sea­son­ally adjusted) national sales activ­ity in Novem­ber 2010 was 9.3 per below lev­els in Novem­ber 2009.

The per­sis­tence of large year-over-year declines from last year’s record lev­els has been mask­ing the steady improve­ment in national sales activ­ity since July 2010.  A com­par­i­son of Novem­ber sales activ­ity to sales for the same month in pre­vi­ous years sug­gests that activ­ity is cur­rently run­ning at more nor­mal lev­els (Exhibit 1: http://​www​.crea​.ca/​p​u​b​l​i​c​/​n​e​w​s​_​s​t​a​t​s​/​p​d​f​s​/​2​0​1​0​_​1​2​_​1​5​_​m​e​d​i​a​_​r​e​p​o​r​t​_​e​n​.​pdf).

The num­ber of new res­i­den­tial list­ings on Cana­dian MLS® Sys­tems edged down 0.7% on a sea­son­ally adjusted basis in Novem­ber. New list­ings remain 14.6% below the peak reached in April 2010.

The national hous­ing mar­ket has been firm­ing up since July 2010 due to improv­ing sales activ­ity and a muted rise in new list­ings, but over­all remains bal­anced. About 60% of local mar­kets in Canada were in bal­anced mar­ket ter­ri­tory in Novem­ber. Of the remain­ing 40%, three-quarters of these mar­kets have a sales to new list­ings ratio con­sis­tent with a being clas­si­fied as a sell­ers’ market.

An increase in new list­ings is likely to return many sell­ers mar­kets to bal­anced ter­ri­tory over the com­ing months,” said Gre­gory Klump, CREA’s Chief Econ­o­mist. “With sales activ­ity hav­ing returned to bet­ter health and a firm floor under prices, sell­ers who pre­vi­ously shied away from putting their home on the mar­ket are expected to list their home in response to improved hous­ing demand in recent months.”

The num­ber of months of inven­tory rep­re­sents the num­ber of months it would take to sell cur­rent inven­to­ries at the cur­rent rate of sales activ­ity, and is another mea­sure of the bal­ance between hous­ing sup­ply and demand. The sea­son­ally adjusted num­ber of months of inven­tory stood at 5.8 months at the end of Novem­ber on a national basis. This is down from 6.1 months in Octo­ber. The num­ber of months of inven­tory now stands 1.4 months below the level reached in July 2010, when it stood at this year’s high­est level.

The national aver­age price for homes sold in Novem­ber 2010 was $344,268, up two% from Novem­ber 2009. Nearly two-thirds of local mar­kets recorded a year-over-year increase in aver­age price. In recent months, the national aver­age price has been influ­enced by ris­ing prices but fewer sales in some of Canada’s prici­est mar­kets com­pared to one year ago.

Fol­low­ing the chill­ing lows at the onset of the recent reces­sion and the dizzy­ing heights dur­ing the sub­se­quent recov­ery, the national hous­ing mar­ket appears to be return­ing to some sem­blance of nor­malcy,” said Klump. “Changes to mort­gage reg­u­la­tions ear­lier this year were pru­dent and suf­fi­cient, strik­ing the right bal­ance between pre­vent­ing spec­u­la­tive hous­ing mar­ket activ­ity and keep­ing home­own­er­ship afford­abil­ity within reach for cred­it­wor­thy home buy­ers. That’s a good thing, since hous­ing activ­ity helped sup­port Cana­dian eco­nomic growth this year. Ris­ing inter­est rates and weaker expected job growth are likely to con­tribute to softer prospects for hous­ing mar­ket activ­ity and aver­age price growth next year, reflect­ing weak­en­ing eco­nomic growth prospects.”

PLEASE NOTE: The infor­ma­tion con­tained in this news release com­bines both major mar­ket and national MLS® sales infor­ma­tion from the pre­vi­ous month.

CREA cau­tions that aver­age price infor­ma­tion can be use­ful in estab­lish­ing trends over time, but does not indi­cate actual prices in cen­tres com­prised of widely diver­gent neigh­bor­hoods or account for price dif­fer­en­tial between geo­graphic areas. Sta­tis­ti­cal infor­ma­tion con­tained in this report includes all hous­ing types.

MLS® is a co-operative mar­ket­ing sys­tem used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure max­i­mum expo­sure of prop­er­ties listed for sale.

The Cana­dian Real Estate Asso­ci­a­tion (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade asso­ci­a­tions, rep­re­sent­ing more than 100,000 REALTORS® work­ing through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Fur­ther infor­ma­tion can be found at http://​www​.crea​.ca/​p​u​b​l​i​c​/​n​e​w​s​_​s​t​a​t​s​/​p​d​f​s​/​2​0​1​0​_​1​2​_​1​5​_​m​e​d​i​a​_​r​e​p​o​r​t​_​e​n​.​pdf and http://​www​.crea​.ca/​p​u​b​l​i​c​/​n​e​w​s​_​s​t​a​t​s​/​m​e​d​i​a​.​htm

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Con­tact the Jef­frey Team for more infor­ma­tion – 416−388−1960

Lau­rin & Natalie Jef­frey are Toronto Real­tors with Cen­tury 21 Regal Realty.
They did not write these arti­cles, they just repro­duce them here for peo­ple
who are inter­ested in Toronto real estate. They do not work for any builders.

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